| Literature DB >> 33568809 |
Stephen A Montzka1, Geoffrey S Dutton2,3, Robert W Portmann4, Martyn P Chipperfield5,6, Sean Davis4, Wuhu Feng5,7, Alistair J Manning8, Eric Ray3,4, Matthew Rigby9, Bradley D Hall2, Carolina Siso2,3, J David Nance2,3, Paul B Krummel10, Jens Mühle11, Dickon Young9, Simon O'Doherty9, Peter K Salameh11, Christina M Harth11, Ronald G Prinn12, Ray F Weiss11, James W Elkins2, Helen Walter-Terrinoni13, Christina Theodoridi14.
Abstract
The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1-12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008-2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33568809 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nature ISSN: 0028-0836 Impact factor: 49.962