Caroline Stein1, Ewerton Cousin2, Ísis Eloah Machado3, Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes4, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos5, Tatiane Moraes de Sousa6, Maria Inês Schmidt1,7, John Gallagher2, Mohsen Naghavi2, Bruce B Duncan1,7. 1. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil. 2. University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, Estados Unidos. 3. Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva, Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil. 4. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil. 5. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil. 6. Fundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. 7. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Social, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. METHODS: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. RESULTS: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.
OBJECTIVE: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. METHODS: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. RESULTS: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.
Authors: Deborah Carvalho Malta; Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Mariângela Carneiro; Crizian Saar Gomes; Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro Journal: Rev Soc Bras Med Trop Date: 2022-01-28 Impact factor: 2.141