| Literature DB >> 33564251 |
Mingyue Xue1,2, Xiaoping Yang3, Yuan Zou3, Tao Liu3, Yinxia Su3, Cheng Li4, Hua Yao3, Shuxia Wang3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: High prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) occurs in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and about 13% of diabetic patients eventually die of liver cirrhosis or liver cancer. The purpose of our research was to develop a non-invasive predictive model of NAFLD in adults with T2DM. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Adult patients diagnosed with T2DM during physical examination in 2018 in Urumqi were recruited, in total 40,921 cases. We chose questionnaire and physical measurement variables to build a simple, low-cost model. Variables were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO). The features chosen by LASSO were used to build the nomogram prediction model of NAFLD. The receiver operating curve (ROC) and calibration were used for model validation.Entities:
Keywords: nomogram; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; screening tool; type 2 diabetes mellitus
Year: 2021 PMID: 33564251 PMCID: PMC7866952 DOI: 10.2147/DMSO.S271882
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes ISSN: 1178-7007 Impact factor: 3.168
Figure 1Missing data of covariates.
Figure 2Texture feature selection using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binary logistic regression model.
Figure 3Nomogram to predict the risk of T2DM developing into NAFLD.
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis for Risk Factors Associated with Hypertension in the Development Group (N =28,645)
| Variables | β | Odds Ratio | 95% CI | Z value | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age(years), n(%) | |||||
| 18–29 | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| 30–39 | 0.601 | 1.824 | 1.154–2.943 | 2.522 | 0.012 |
| 40–49 | 0.720 | 2.056 | 1.346–3.220 | 3.245 | 0.001 |
| 50–59 | 0.651 | 1.917 | 1.263–2.986 | 2.971 | 0.003 |
| 60–69 | 0.551 | 1.734 | 1.144–2.697 | 2.522 | 0.012 |
| 70–79 | 0.327 | 1.386 | 0.913–2.158 | 1.492 | 0.136 |
| ≥ 80 | 0.048 | 1.049 | 0.686–1.643 | 0.215 | 0.830 |
| Ethnicity, n(%) | |||||
| Han | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Uygur | −0.497 | 0.608 | 0.554–0.668 | −10.368 | <0.001 |
| Kazak | −0.564 | 0.569 | 0.448–0.720 | −4.654 | <0.001 |
| Hui | −0.111 | 0.895 | 0.824–0.972 | −2.639 | 0.008 |
| Mongolian | −0.226 | 0.797 | 0.366–1.657 | −0.592 | 0.554 |
| Other nationalities | −0.357 | 0.700 | 0.526–0.924 | −2.486 | 0.013 |
| Sex, n(%) | |||||
| Female | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Male | 0.576 | 1.779 | 1.676–1.888 | 19.005 | <0.001 |
| Exercise | |||||
| No | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Yes | −0.552 | 0.576 | 0.544–0.610 | −18.983 | <0.001 |
| Smoking, n(%) | |||||
| Non | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Ever | 0.520 | 1.683 | 1.408–2.009 | 5.740 | <0.001 |
| Current | 0.963 | 2.619 | 2.375–2.890 | 19.222 | <0.001 |
| Dietary ratio, n(%) | |||||
| Vegetarian based | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Meat balanced | −0.081 | 0.923 | 0.808–1.054 | −1.191 | 0.234 |
| Meat based | 0.848 | 2.334 | 2.003–2.722 | 10.839 | <0.001 |
| Heart rate (counts per minute) | 0.008 | 1.008 | 1.006–1.009 | 5.699 | <0.001 |
| SBP (mmHg) | 0.007 | 1.007 | 1.006–1.009 | 9.088 | <0.001 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 0.173 | 1.189 | 1.177–1.202 | 31.485 | <0.001 |
| Waist circumference (cm) | 0.020 | 1.020 | 1.016–1.024 | 10.798 | <0.001 |
| ASCVD, n(%) | |||||
| No | Ref | 1 | Ref | — | — |
| Yes | 0.540 | 1.716 | 1.599–1.843 | 14.891 | <0.001 |
Abbreviations: β, the regression coefficient; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; SBP, systolic blood pressure; ASCVD, atherosclerotic vascular disease.
Figure 4ROCs for validating the discrimination power of the nomogram. (A) Development group. (B) Validation group (AUC = 0.756 vs 0.755).
Figure 5Calibration curves for the prediction and training group models (P = 0.654 vs 0.950).
Characteristics of the Development Set and Validation Set
| Characteristics | Development Set(n = 28,645) | Validation Set (n = 122,76) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years), n(%) | 0.380 | ||
| 18–29 | 200(0.70) | 72(0.59) | |
| 30–39 | 563(1.97) | 241(1.96) | |
| 40–49 | 2061(7.19) | 920(7.49) | |
| 50–59 | 4600(16.06) | 1990(16.21) | |
| 60–69 | 8683(30.31) | 3604(29.36) | |
| 70–79 | 9503(33.18) | 4149(33.80) | |
| ≥ 80 | 3035(10.60) | 1300(10.59) | |
| Ethnicity, n(%) | 0.692 | ||
| Han | 20,809 (72.64) | 8908 (72.56) | |
| Uygur | 3263 (11.39) | 1393 (11.35) | |
| Kazak | 401 (1.40) | 173 (1.41) | |
| Hui | 3825 (13.35) | 1639 (13.35) | |
| Mongolian | 36 (0.13) | 24 (0.20) | |
| Other nationalities | 311 (1.09) | 139 (1.13) | |
| Sex, n(%) | 0.623 | ||
| Male | 12,085(42.19) | 5212(42.46) | |
| Female | 16,560(57.81) | 7064(57.54) | |
| Career, n(%) | 0.602 | ||
| Trader or service people | 12,684(44.28) | 5408(44.05) | |
| Agricultural workers | 13,148(45.90) | 5638(45.93) | |
| Factory workers | 1582(5.52) | 723(5.89) | |
| Soldiers | 359(1.25) | 146(1.19) | |
| Others | 872(3.04) | 361(2.94) | |
| Exercise, n (%) | 0.703 | ||
| No | 12,740(44.48) | 5434(44.27) | |
| Yes | 15,905(55.52) | 6842(55.73) | |
| Smoking, n (%) | 0.193 | ||
| Non | 25,467(88.91) | 10,871(88.55) | - |
| Ever | 639(2.23) | 256(2.09) | |
| Current | 2539(8.86) | 1149(9.36) | |
| Dietary ratio, n (%) | 0.246 | ||
| Vegetarian based | 1160(4.05) | 495(4.03) | |
| Meat balanced | 24,630(85.98) | 10,623(86.53) | |
| Meat based | 2855(9.97) | 1158(9.43) | |
| ASCVD, n(%) | 0.735 | ||
| No | 23,623(82.47) | 10,106(82.32) | |
| Yes | 5022(17.53) | 2170(17.68) | |
| Diabetic nephropathy, n(%) | 0.230 | ||
| No | 28,325(98.88) | 12,156(99.02) | |
| Yes | 320(1.12) | 120(0.98) | |
| Renal failure, n(%) | 0.534 | ||
| No | 28,465(99.37) | 12,206(99.43) | |
| Yes | 180(0.63) | 70(0.57) | |
| Chronic nephritis, n(%) | 0.665 | ||
| No | 28,545(99.65) | 12,229(99.62) | |
| Yes | 100(0.35) | 47(0.38) | |
| Congestive heart failure, n(%) | 0.693 | ||
| No | 28,632(99.55) | 12,270(99.51) | |
| Yes | 130(0.45) | 60(0.49) | |
| Precordial pain, n(%) | 0.812 | ||
| No | 28,202(98.05) | 12,095(98.09) | |
| Yes | 560(1.95) | 235(1.91) | |
| Eye diseases, n(%) | 0.461 | ||
| No | 28,303(98.81) | 12,118(98.71) | |
| Yes | 342(1.19) | 158(1.29) | |
| Psychosis, n(%) | 0.935 | ||
| No | 28,518(99.56) | 12,223(99.57) | |
| Yes | 127(0.44) | 53(0.43) | |
| Bronchitis, n(%) | 0.433 | ||
| No | 27,383(95.59) | 11,713(95.41) | |
| Yes | 1262(4.41) | 563(4.59) | |
| Anemia, n(%) | 0.322 | ||
| No | 24,990(87.24) | 10,665(86.88) | |
| Yes | 3655(12.76) | 1611(13.12) | |
| Tuberculosis, n(%) | 0.749 | ||
| No | 28,537(99.62) | 12,233(99.65) | |
| Yes | 108(0.38) | 43(0.35) | |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 26.03±3.58 | 26.02±3.55 | 0.801 |
| SBP (mmHg) | 130(120–141) | 130 (120–141) | 0.314 |
| DBP (mmHg) | 78(70–82) | 78(70–82) | 0.416 |
| Heart rate (counts per minute) | 76(70–81) | 76(70–81) | 0.614 |
| Waist circumference (cm) | 90.41±10.45 | 90.35±10.40 | 0.617 |
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; ASCVD, atherosclerotic vascular disease; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; SBP, systolic blood pressure.