Anggraini Dwi Sensusiati1,2,3, Muhammad Amin2,3,4, Nasronudin Nasronudin3,5, Alfian Nur Rosyid3,4, Nanda Aulya Ramadhan2,3, Rofida Lathifah6, Eva Puspitasari2, Ria Indah Wahyuningtyas2, Erika Soebakti1,3. 1. Department of Radiology, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, 60115, Indonesia. 2. Department of Research, Planning and Development, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, 60115, Indonesia. 3. Medical Faculty, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, East Java, 60115, Indonesia. 4. Department of Pulmonology, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, 60115, Indonesia. 5. Department of Internal Medicine, Universitas Airlangga Hospital, Surabaya, East Java, 60115, Indonesia. 6. Department of School of Health Science, City, University of London, London, EC1V 0HB, UK.
Abstract
Background: Available data suggest that case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients in Surabaya is higher than global cases. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors to prevent the mortality. This study aimed to assess the factors associated with hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients, and develop a prediction score based on these findings. Methods: We analyzed 111 patients, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 based on reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The following patient characteristics were obtained from records: age, gender, type of symptoms, onset of symptoms, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), absolute lymphocyte count, chest x-ray abnormalities, lung involvement, type of lesion, radiographic assessment of the quantity of lung edema (RALE) score, and mortality. Data were analyzed using SPSS 25.0. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age >50 years ( p=0.043), NLR score >5.8 ( p=0.016) and RALE score >2 ( p=0.002) can predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital. ROC curve analysis of the score ability to predict mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.794. The cut-off point is 4.5, with a sensitivity of 96.7% and specificity of 49.4% to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patient in the hospital. Conclusions Age, NLR score and RALE score were associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital and might be used as a predictor for mortality of COVID-19 patients in health care centre where radiologists are available. The prediction score may be useful for frontline physicians to effectively manage patients with a higher score to prevent mortality. Copyright:
Background: Available data suggest that case fatality rate of COVID-19patients in Surabaya is higher than global cases. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors to prevent the mortality. This study aimed to assess the factors associated with hospital mortality of COVID-19patients, and develop a prediction score based on these findings. Methods: We analyzed 111 patients, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 based on reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The following patient characteristics were obtained from records: age, gender, type of symptoms, onset of symptoms, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), absolute lymphocyte count, chest x-ray abnormalities, lung involvement, type of lesion, radiographic assessment of the quantity of lung edema (RALE) score, and mortality. Data were analyzed using SPSS 25.0. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age >50 years ( p=0.043), NLR score >5.8 ( p=0.016) and RALE score >2 ( p=0.002) can predict the mortality of COVID-19patients in the hospital. ROC curve analysis of the score ability to predict mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.794. The cut-off point is 4.5, with a sensitivity of 96.7% and specificity of 49.4% to predict the mortality of COVID-19patient in the hospital. Conclusions Age, NLR score and RALE score were associated with mortality of COVID-19patients in the hospital and might be used as a predictor for mortality of COVID-19patients in health care centre where radiologists are available. The prediction score may be useful for frontline physicians to effectively manage patients with a higher score to prevent mortality. Copyright:
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