Ross D Booton1,2, Jason J Ong3,4, Amy Lee5, Aifeng Liu5,6, Wenting Huang5,6, Chongyi Wei7, Weiming Tang5,6,8, Wei Ma9, Peter Vickerman1, Joseph D Tucker3,5,6,8, Kate M Mitchell2. 1. University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. 2. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. 3. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 4. Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 5. University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China. 6. Social Entrepreneurship to Spur Health (SESH) Global, Guangzhou, China. 7. Rutgers School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA. 8. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. 9. School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR) = 1.89]. We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao). METHODS: A mathematical model of HIV transmission, testing and treatment among MSM in China was parameterized using city-level demographic and sexual behaviour data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage data. The model was used to project the HIV infections averted over 20 years (2016-2036) from the intervention to increase self-testing, compared with current testing rates. RESULTS: Running the intervention once would avert < 2.2% infections over 20 years. Repeating the intervention (RR = 1.89) annually would avert 6.4-10.7% of new infections, while further increases in the self-testing rate (hypothetical RR = 3) would avert 11.7-20.7% of new infections. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated annual interventions would give a three- to seven-fold increase in long-term impact compared with a one-off intervention. Other interventions will be needed to more effectively reduce the HIV burden in this population.
OBJECTIVES: An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR) = 1.89]. We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao). METHODS: A mathematical model of HIV transmission, testing and treatment among MSM in China was parameterized using city-level demographic and sexual behaviour data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage data. The model was used to project the HIV infections averted over 20 years (2016-2036) from the intervention to increase self-testing, compared with current testing rates. RESULTS: Running the intervention once would avert < 2.2% infections over 20 years. Repeating the intervention (RR = 1.89) annually would avert 6.4-10.7% of new infections, while further increases in the self-testing rate (hypothetical RR = 3) would avert 11.7-20.7% of new infections. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated annual interventions would give a three- to seven-fold increase in long-term impact compared with a one-off intervention. Other interventions will be needed to more effectively reduce the HIV burden in this population.
Authors: Ross D Booton; Gengfeng Fu; Louis MacGregor; Jianjun Li; Jason J Ong; Joseph D Tucker; Katherine Me Turner; Weiming Tang; Peter Vickerman; Kate M Mitchell Journal: J Int AIDS Soc Date: 2021-04 Impact factor: 6.707