Literature DB >> 33505808

Reproducing country-wide COVID-19 dynamics can require the usage of a set of SIR systems.

Eugene B Postnikov1.   

Abstract

This work shows that simple compartmental epidemiological models may not reproduce actually reported country-wide statistics since the latter reflects the cumulative amount of infected persons, which in fact is a sum of outbreaks within different patched. It the same time, the multilogistic decomposition of such epidemiological curves reveals components, which are quite close to the solutions of the SIR model in logistic approximations characterised by different sets of parameters including time shifts. This line of reasoning is confirmed by processing data for Spain and Russia in details and, additionally, is illustrated for several other countries.
© 2021 Postnikov.

Entities:  

Keywords:  COVID-19; Multilogistic regression; SIR model

Year:  2021        PMID: 33505808      PMCID: PMC7797172          DOI: 10.7717/peerj.10679

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  PeerJ        ISSN: 2167-8359            Impact factor:   2.984


  21 in total

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2.  Responding to Covid-19 - A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic?

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3.  A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model.

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Journal:  Front Public Health       Date:  2020-05-28

4.  Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics "on a back-of-envelope": Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?

Authors:  Eugene B Postnikov
Journal:  Chaos Solitons Fractals       Date:  2020-05-01       Impact factor: 5.944

5.  Bi-logistic model for disease dynamics caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Russia.

Authors:  Anastasia I Lavrova; Eugene B Postnikov; Olga A Manicheva; Boris I Vishnevsky
Journal:  R Soc Open Sci       Date:  2017-09-13       Impact factor: 2.963

6.  COVID-19: towards controlling of a pandemic.

Authors:  Juliet Bedford; Delia Enria; Johan Giesecke; David L Heymann; Chikwe Ihekweazu; Gary Kobinger; H Clifford Lane; Ziad Memish; Myoung-Don Oh; Amadou Alpha Sall; Anne Schuchat; Kumnuan Ungchusak; Lothar H Wieler
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  2020-03-17       Impact factor: 79.321

7.  Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.

Authors:  Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
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8.  Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.

Authors:  Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; F Paul Spitzner; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto
Journal:  Science       Date:  2020-05-15       Impact factor: 47.728

Review 9.  World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

Authors:  Catrin Sohrabi; Zaid Alsafi; Niamh O'Neill; Mehdi Khan; Ahmed Kerwan; Ahmed Al-Jabir; Christos Iosifidis; Riaz Agha
Journal:  Int J Surg       Date:  2020-02-26       Impact factor: 6.071

10.  Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France.

Authors:  Duccio Fanelli; Francesco Piazza
Journal:  Chaos Solitons Fractals       Date:  2020-03-21       Impact factor: 5.944

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  1 in total

1.  An interpretation of COVID-19 in Tokyo using a combination of SIR models.

Authors:  Koichiro Maki
Journal:  Proc Jpn Acad Ser B Phys Biol Sci       Date:  2022       Impact factor: 3.493

  1 in total

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