Annie Herbert1, Matthew E Barclay2, Minjoung M Koo3, Brian Rous4, David C Greenberg4, Gary Abel5, Georgios Lyratzopoulos6. 1. Epidemiology of Cancer Healthcare and Outcomes (ECHO) Research Group, Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK; MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Bristol Medical School, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. 2. The Healthcare Improvement Studies (THIS) Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), Public Health England, London, UK. 3. Epidemiology of Cancer Healthcare and Outcomes (ECHO) Research Group, Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK. 4. National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), Public Health England, London, UK. 5. Medical School (Primary Care), University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. 6. Epidemiology of Cancer Healthcare and Outcomes (ECHO) Research Group, Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK; National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), Public Health England, London, UK. Electronic address: y.lyratzopoulos@ucl.ac.uk.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To determine stage-specific time-trends in renal cancer incidence. METHODS: We used population-based East Anglia data 1999-2016 (population ∼2 million) on 5,456 primary renal cancer diagnoses, estimating stage-specific annual incidence using Poisson regression, allowing for changing time-trends, and adjusting for sex, age, and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: Renal cancer incidence increased from 9.8-16.4 cases per 100,000 during 1999-2016. Incidence of Stage I, II, and III cases increased over time, most steeply for Stage I, with annual Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] for Stage I of 1.09 (95 % CI 1.07-1.12) during 1999-2010; and 1.03 (1.00-1.05) during 2011-2016. In contrast, the annual incidence of Stage IV renal cancer decreased during most years, IRR of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) during 2003-2016. CONCLUSION: The findings are consistent with both earlier detection of symptomatic renal cancer and increasing identification of asymptomatic lesions. However, the decreasing incidence of late-stage disease suggests genuine shifts towards earlier diagnosis.
OBJECTIVES: To determine stage-specific time-trends in renal cancer incidence. METHODS: We used population-based East Anglia data 1999-2016 (population ∼2 million) on 5,456 primary renal cancer diagnoses, estimating stage-specific annual incidence using Poisson regression, allowing for changing time-trends, and adjusting for sex, age, and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS:Renal cancer incidence increased from 9.8-16.4 cases per 100,000 during 1999-2016. Incidence of Stage I, II, and III cases increased over time, most steeply for Stage I, with annual Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] for Stage I of 1.09 (95 % CI 1.07-1.12) during 1999-2010; and 1.03 (1.00-1.05) during 2011-2016. In contrast, the annual incidence of Stage IV renal cancer decreased during most years, IRR of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) during 2003-2016. CONCLUSION: The findings are consistent with both earlier detection of symptomatic renal cancer and increasing identification of asymptomatic lesions. However, the decreasing incidence of late-stage disease suggests genuine shifts towards earlier diagnosis.
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