Jhon Freddy Montana1, Glenda Roberta Oliveira Naiff Ferreira1, Carlos Leonardo Figueiredo Cunha1, Ana Angélica Rêgo de Queiroz2, Wellington Augusto Andrade Fernandes3, Sandra Helena Isse Polaro1, Lucia Hisako Takase Gonçalves1, Danielle Costa Carrara Couto4, Elucir Gir5, Renata Karina Reis5, Wiliam Sorensen6, Eliã Pinheiro Botelho7. 1. Nursing Graduate Program, Federal University of Para, Rua Augusto Correia, 01, Complexo Saúde, Guamá, Belém, Para, 66075-110, Brazil. 2. Nursing Department of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Centro das Ciências da Saúde, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970, Brazil. 3. Laboratory of Spatial Analyzes (LAENA), Center for Amazonina Studies (NAEA), Federal University of Para, Rua Ausgusto Correia, 01, Complexo Engenharia, Guamá, Belém, Para, 66075-110, Brazil. 4. School of Technology in Geoprocessing, Federal University of Pará, Rua Augusto Correia, 01, Complexo Engenharia, Guamá, Belém, Para, 66075-110, Brazil. 5. Graduate Program of Fundamental Nursing. Nursing School of Ribeirao Preto, University of Sao Paulo, Av dos Bandeirantes, 3900. Campus Universitario - Monte Alegre, Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, 14040-902, Brazil. 6. Department of Health & Kinesiology, University of Texas at Tyler, 3900 University Blvd., Tyler, TX, 75799, USA. 7. Nursing Graduate Program, Federal University of Para, Rua Augusto Correia, 01, Complexo Saúde, Guamá, Belém, Para, 66075-110, Brazil. elipinbt@gmail.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Colombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory. METHODS: Our sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator. RESULTS: While the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions. CONCLUSION: Our study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.
BACKGROUND: Colombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory. METHODS: Our sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDSmortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator. RESULTS: While the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDSmortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDSmortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDSmortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDSmortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions. CONCLUSION: Our study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDSmortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDSmortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-childHIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDSmortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.
Entities:
Keywords:
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; Colombia; HIV; South America; Spatial analysis