Hirokazu Saito1, Masafumi Sakaguchi2, Yoshihiro Kadono3, Takashi Shono4, Kentaro Kamikawa2, Atsushi Urata2, Jiro Nasu4, Haruo Imamura2, Ikuo Matsushita5, Tatsuyuki Kakuma6, Shuji Tada7. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Kumamoto City Hospital, 4-1-60, Higashimachi, Higashi-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 862-8505, Japan. h-saito@kumachu.gr.jp. 2. Department of Gastroenterology, Saiseikai Kumamoto Hospital, 5-3-1, Chikami, Minami-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 861-4193, Japan. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, Tsuruta Hospital, 10-112, Hotakubohonmachi, Higashi-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 862-0925, Japan. 4. Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Kumamoto Chuo Hospital, 1-5-1, Tainoshima, Minami-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 862-0965, Japan. 5. Department of Gastroenterology, Kumamoto Chuo Hospital, 1-5-1, Tainoshima, Minami-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 862-0965, Japan. 6. Department of Biostatics Center, Medical School, Kurume University, 67, Asahimachi, Kurume City, Fukuoka, 830-0011, Japan. 7. Department of Gastroenterology, Kumamoto City Hospital, 4-1-60, Higashimachi, Higashi-ku, Kumamoto City, Kumamoto, 862-8505, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Risk stratification of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) for common bile duct (CBD) stones is needed for clinicians to adequately explain to patients regarding the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP and to proactively take preventive measures in high-risk patients. AIMS: To stratify the risk of PEP for CBD stones based on CBD-related diseases. METHODS: A total of 1551 patients with naïve papilla who underwent ERCP for CBD stones were divided into three groups: Group A: asymptomatic CBD stones, Group B: obstructive jaundice and elevated liver test values without cholangitis, and Group C: mild, moderate, and severe cholangitis. We stratified the risk of PEP by comparing its incidence among the three groups using the Holm's method. Furthermore, we performed one-to-one propensity score matching between Group A and the other groups to examine the risk of PEP in Group A. RESULTS: The incidence rates in Groups A, B, and C were 13.7%, 7.3%, and 1.8%, respectively. The Holm-adjusted p values between Groups A and B, Groups A and C, and Groups B and C were 0.023, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively. Propensity score matching revealed that the incidence of PEP was significantly more in Group A than in the other groups (13.3% vs. 1.5%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of PEP for CBD stones was stratified into low risk (Group C), intermediate risk (Group B), and high risk (Group A). This simple disease-based risk stratification may be useful to predict the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP.
BACKGROUND: Risk stratification of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) for common bile duct (CBD) stones is needed for clinicians to adequately explain to patients regarding the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP and to proactively take preventive measures in high-risk patients. AIMS: To stratify the risk of PEP for CBD stones based on CBD-related diseases. METHODS: A total of 1551 patients with naïve papilla who underwent ERCP for CBD stones were divided into three groups: Group A: asymptomatic CBD stones, Group B: obstructive jaundice and elevated liver test values without cholangitis, and Group C: mild, moderate, and severe cholangitis. We stratified the risk of PEP by comparing its incidence among the three groups using the Holm's method. Furthermore, we performed one-to-one propensity score matching between Group A and the other groups to examine the risk of PEP in Group A. RESULTS: The incidence rates in Groups A, B, and C were 13.7%, 7.3%, and 1.8%, respectively. The Holm-adjusted p values between Groups A and B, Groups A and C, and Groups B and C were 0.023, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively. Propensity score matching revealed that the incidence of PEP was significantly more in Group A than in the other groups (13.3% vs. 1.5%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of PEP for CBD stones was stratified into low risk (Group C), intermediate risk (Group B), and high risk (Group A). This simple disease-based risk stratification may be useful to predict the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP.