Population dynamics of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climatic scenarios in Colombia.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.