| Literature DB >> 33436608 |
Juliane F Oliveira1,2, Daniel C P Jorge3, Rafael V Veiga4, Moreno S Rodrigues5, Matheus F Torquato6, Nivea B da Silva7, Rosemeire L Fiaccone7, Luciana L Cardim4, Felipe A C Pereira8, Caio P de Castro3, Aureliano S S Paiva4, Alan A S Amad6, Ernesto A B F Lima9, Diego S Souza4, Suani T R Pinho3, Pablo Ivan P Ramos4, Roberto F S Andrade4,3.
Abstract
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.Entities:
Year: 2021 PMID： 33436608 DOI： 10.1038/s41467-020-19798-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nat Commun ISSN： 2041-1723 Impact factor: 14.919