Heat-Moderating Effects of Bus Stop Shelters and Tree Shade on Public Transport Ridership.

Rising temperatures threaten the resilience of public transit systems. We determined whether bus stop shelters and tree canopy surrounding bus stops moderated the effect of warm season temperatures on ridership in Austin, Texas, and whether shelters and trees were equitably distributed. For bus stops (n = 2271) of Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority, boardings per bus were measured 1 April-30 September 2019. Air temperature data originated from the Camp Mabry weather station. Tree canopy was calculated by classification of high-resolution aerial imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program. Data on race, ethnicity, poverty level, median age, and bus commuters within census tracts of bus stops originated from the 2014-2018 American Community Survey. Using multilevel negative binomial regression models, we found that shelters did not moderate the effect of high temperatures on ridership (p > 0.05). During high temperatures, each one-percent increase in tree canopy was associated with a lesser decrease (1.6%) in ridership compared to if there were no trees (1.7%) (p < 0.001). In general, shelters and trees were equitably distributed. Insignificant or modest effects of shelters and trees on ridership during high temperatures may be attributed to the transit dependency of riders. For climate change adaptation, we recommend tree planting at bus stops to protect from ridership losses and unhealthy exposure to extreme heat.