Ali Asgary1, Monica Gabriela Cojocaru2, Mahdi M Najafabadi3, Jianhong Wu4. 1. Disaster & Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies and Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid-response Simulation, York University, Toronto, Canada. asgary@yorku.ca. 2. Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada. 3. Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid-response Simulation, York University, Toronto, Canada. 4. Canada Research Chair in Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: School testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection has become an important policy and planning issue as schools were reopened after the summer season and as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Decisions to test or not to test and, if testing, how many tests, how often and for how long, are complex decisions that need to be taken under uncertainty and conflicting pressures from various stakeholders. METHOD: We have developed an agent-based model and simulation tool that can be used to analyze the outcomes and effectiveness of different testing strategies and scenarios in schools with various number of classrooms and class sizes. We have applied a modified version of a standard SEIR disease transmission model that includes symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious populations, and that incorporates feasible public health measures. We also incorporated a pre-symptomatic phase for symptomatic cases. Every day, a random number of students in each class are tested. If they tested positive, they are placed in self-isolation at home when the test results are provided. Last but not least, we have included options to allow for full testing or complete self-isolation of a classroom with a positive case. RESULTS: We present sample simulation results for parameter values based on schools and disease related information, in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The findings show that testing can be an effective method in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools if taken frequently, with expedited test results and self-isolation of infected students at home. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that while testing cannot eliminate the risk and has its own challenges, it can significantly control outbreaks when combined with other measures, such as masks and other protective measures.
BACKGROUND: School testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection has become an important policy and planning issue as schools were reopened after the summer season and as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Decisions to test or not to test and, if testing, how many tests, how often and for how long, are complex decisions that need to be taken under uncertainty and conflicting pressures from various stakeholders. METHOD: We have developed an agent-based model and simulation tool that can be used to analyze the outcomes and effectiveness of different testing strategies and scenarios in schools with various number of classrooms and class sizes. We have applied a modified version of a standard SEIR disease transmission model that includes symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious populations, and that incorporates feasible public health measures. We also incorporated a pre-symptomatic phase for symptomatic cases. Every day, a random number of students in each class are tested. If they tested positive, they are placed in self-isolation at home when the test results are provided. Last but not least, we have included options to allow for full testing or complete self-isolation of a classroom with a positive case. RESULTS: We present sample simulation results for parameter values based on schools and disease related information, in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The findings show that testing can be an effective method in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools if taken frequently, with expedited test results and self-isolation of infected students at home. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that while testing cannot eliminate the risk and has its own challenges, it can significantly control outbreaks when combined with other measures, such as masks and other protective measures.
Entities:
Keywords:
Agent-based Modelling; COVID-19; COVID-19 testing; Disease modelling; School testing
Authors: Biao Tang; Francesca Scarabel; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Zachary McCarthy; Michael Glazer; Yanyu Xiao; Jane M Heffernan; Ali Asgary; Nicholas Hume Ogden; Jianhong Wu Journal: Biology (Basel) Date: 2020-05-16
Authors: A M Wilson; S E Abney; M-F King; M H Weir; M López-García; J D Sexton; S J Dancer; J Proctor; C J Noakes; K A Reynolds Journal: J Hosp Infect Date: 2020-06-02 Impact factor: 3.926
Authors: Joël Mossong; Niel Hens; Mark Jit; Philippe Beutels; Kari Auranen; Rafael Mikolajczyk; Marco Massari; Stefania Salmaso; Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba; Jacco Wallinga; Janneke Heijne; Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys; Magdalena Rosinska; W John Edmunds Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2008-03-25 Impact factor: 11.069
Authors: Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths; Cliff C Kerr; Robyn M Stuart; Dina Mistry; Daniel J Klein; Russell M Viner; Chris Bonell Journal: Lancet Child Adolesc Health Date: 2020-08-03
Authors: Andrew William Byrne; David McEvoy; Aine B Collins; Kevin Hunt; Miriam Casey; Ann Barber; Francis Butler; John Griffin; Elizabeth A Lane; Conor McAloon; Kirsty O'Brien; Patrick Wall; Kieran A Walsh; Simon J More Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-08-05 Impact factor: 2.692
Authors: Trystan Leng; Edward M Hill; Robin N Thompson; Michael J Tildesley; Matt J Keeling; Louise Dyson Journal: PLoS Comput Biol Date: 2022-05-27 Impact factor: 4.779
Authors: Shari Krishnaratne; Hannah Littlecott; Kerstin Sell; Jacob Burns; Julia E Rabe; Jan M Stratil; Tim Litwin; Clemens Kreutz; Michaela Coenen; Karin Geffert; Anna Helen Boger; Ani Movsisyan; Suzie Kratzer; Carmen Klinger; Katharina Wabnitz; Brigitte Strahwald; Ben Verboom; Eva Rehfuess; Renke L Biallas; Caroline Jung-Sievers; Stephan Voss; Lisa M Pfadenhauer Journal: Cochrane Database Syst Rev Date: 2022-01-17
Authors: Stefanie Theuring; Marlene Thielecke; Welmoed van Loon; Franziska Hommes; Claudia Hülso; Annkathrin von der Haar; Jennifer Körner; Michael Schmidt; Falko Böhringer; Marcus A Mall; Alexander Rosen; Christof von Kalle; Valerie Kirchberger; Tobias Kurth; Joachim Seybold; Frank P Mockenhaupt Journal: Euro Surveill Date: 2021-08
Authors: Trystan Leng; Edward M Hill; Alex Holmes; Emma Southall; Robin N Thompson; Michael J Tildesley; Matt J Keeling; Louise Dyson Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2022-03-01 Impact factor: 14.919
Authors: Mohammadali Tofighi; Ali Asgary; Asad A Merchant; Mohammad Ali Shafiee; Mahdi M Najafabadi; Nazanin Nadri; Mehdi Aarabi; Jane Heffernan; Jianhong Wu Journal: PLoS One Date: 2021-11-19 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Andrew Page; Saikou Y Diallo; Wesley J Wildman; George Hodulik; Eric W Weisel; Neha Gondal; David Voas Journal: Simul Healthc Date: 2022-02-01 Impact factor: 1.929
Authors: Ali Asgary; Hudson Blue; Adriano O Solis; Zachary McCarthy; Mahdi Najafabadi; Mohammad Ali Tofighi; Jianhong Wu Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-02-24 Impact factor: 3.390