Kelvin K C Ng1, Nicole M Y Cheng2, Jiwei Huang3, Mingheng Liao4, Charing C N Chong5, Kit-Fai Lee2, John Wong2, Sunny Y S Cheung2, Hon-Ting Lok2, Andrew K Y Fung2, Grace L H Wong6, Vincent W S Wong6, Paul B S Lai5. 1. Department of Surgery, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital, New Territories, Hong Kong. Electronic address: kkcng95@gmail.com. 2. Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital, New Territories, Hong Kong. 3. Department of Liver Surgery, Liver Transplantation Division, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. 4. Department of Liver Surgery, Liver Transplantation Division, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China; Laboratory of Liver Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. 5. Department of Surgery, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital, New Territories, Hong Kong. 6. Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Prince of Wales Hospital, New Territories, Hong Kong.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Although hepatectomy is a curative treatment modality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the associated 10-year long-term actual survival are rarely reported. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for 10-year actual survivors with HCC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2004 to 2009, 753 patients with curative hepatectomy for HCC (development set, n = 325; validation set, n = 428) were included. In development set, comparison of clinic-pathological data was made between patients surviving ≥10 years and those surviving <10 years. Good independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis were involved in a nomogram development, which was validated internally and externally using validation set. RESULTS: On multivariate analysis, five independent good prognostic factors for 10-year survival were identified, including young age (OR = 0.943), good ASA status (≤2) (OR = 2.794), higher albumin level (OR = 1.116), solitary tumor (OR = 2.531) and absence of microvascular invasion (OR = 3.367). A novel nomogram was constructed with C-index of 0.801 (95% CI 0.762-0.864). A cut-off point of 167.5 had a sensitivity of 0.794 and specificity of 0.730. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation using validation set revealed C-index of 0.792 (95% CI, 0.741-0.853) and 0.761 (95% CI, 0.718-0.817). CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram for 10-year HCC survivor using age, ASA status, preoperative albumin, tumor number and presence of microvascular tumor invasion was developed and validated with high accuracy.
INTRODUCTION: Although hepatectomy is a curative treatment modality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the associated 10-year long-term actual survival are rarely reported. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for 10-year actual survivors with HCC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2004 to 2009, 753 patients with curative hepatectomy for HCC (development set, n = 325; validation set, n = 428) were included. In development set, comparison of clinic-pathological data was made between patients surviving ≥10 years and those surviving <10 years. Good independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis were involved in a nomogram development, which was validated internally and externally using validation set. RESULTS: On multivariate analysis, five independent good prognostic factors for 10-year survival were identified, including young age (OR = 0.943), good ASA status (≤2) (OR = 2.794), higher albumin level (OR = 1.116), solitary tumor (OR = 2.531) and absence of microvascular invasion (OR = 3.367). A novel nomogram was constructed with C-index of 0.801 (95% CI 0.762-0.864). A cut-off point of 167.5 had a sensitivity of 0.794 and specificity of 0.730. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation using validation set revealed C-index of 0.792 (95% CI, 0.741-0.853) and 0.761 (95% CI, 0.718-0.817). CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram for 10-year HCC survivor using age, ASA status, preoperative albumin, tumor number and presence of microvascular tumor invasion was developed and validated with high accuracy.