David Moriña1,2, Amanda Fernández-Fontelo3, Alejandra Cabaña4, Pedro Puig4, Laura Monfil5, Maria Brotons5, Mireia Diaz5. 1. Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Avinguda Diagonal, 690, Barcelona, 08034, Spain. dmorina@ub.edu. 2. Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Edifici C, Campus de Bellaterra, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain. dmorina@ub.edu. 3. Chair of Statistics, School of Business and Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany. 4. Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Edifici C, Campus de Bellaterra, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain. 5. Unit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Genital warts are a common and highly contagious sexually transmitted disease. They have a large economic burden and affect several aspects of quality of life. Incidence data underestimate the real occurrence of genital warts because this infection is often under-reported, mostly due to their specific characteristics such as the asymptomatic course. METHODS: Genital warts cases for the analysis were obtained from the Catalan public health system database (SIDIAP) for the period 2009-2016. People under 15 and over 94 years old were excluded from the analysis as the incidence of genital warts in this population is negligible. This work introduces a time series model based on a mixture of two distributions, capable of detecting the presence of under-reporting in the data. In order to identify potential differences in the magnitude of the under-reporting issue depending on sex and age, these covariates were included in the model. RESULTS: This work shows that only about 80% in average of genital warts incidence in Catalunya in the period 2009-2016 was registered, although the frequency of under-reporting has been decreasing over the study period. It can also be seen that this issue has a deeper impact on women over 30 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study shows that the quality of the registered data has improved over the considered period of time, the Catalan public health system is underestimating genital warts real burden in almost 10,000 cases, around 23% of the registered cases. The total annual cost is underestimated in about 10 million Euros respect the 54 million Euros annually devoted to genital warts in Catalunya, representing 0.4% of the total budget.
BACKGROUND: Genital warts are a common and highly contagious sexually transmitted disease. They have a large economic burden and affect several aspects of quality of life. Incidence data underestimate the real occurrence of genital warts because this infection is often under-reported, mostly due to their specific characteristics such as the asymptomatic course. METHODS: Genital warts cases for the analysis were obtained from the Catalan public health system database (SIDIAP) for the period 2009-2016. People under 15 and over 94 years old were excluded from the analysis as the incidence of genital warts in this population is negligible. This work introduces a time series model based on a mixture of two distributions, capable of detecting the presence of under-reporting in the data. In order to identify potential differences in the magnitude of the under-reporting issue depending on sex and age, these covariates were included in the model. RESULTS: This work shows that only about 80% in average of genital warts incidence in Catalunya in the period 2009-2016 was registered, although the frequency of under-reporting has been decreasing over the study period. It can also be seen that this issue has a deeper impact on women over 30 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study shows that the quality of the registered data has improved over the considered period of time, the Catalan public health system is underestimating genital warts real burden in almost 10,000 cases, around 23% of the registered cases. The total annual cost is underestimated in about 10 million Euros respect the 54 million Euros annually devoted to genital warts in Catalunya, representing 0.4% of the total budget.
Entities:
Keywords:
Estimation; Genital warts; HPV; Time series; Under-reporting
Authors: Kenneth D Rosenman; Alice Kalush; Mary Jo Reilly; Joseph C Gardiner; Mathew Reeves; Zhewui Luo Journal: J Occup Environ Med Date: 2006-04 Impact factor: 2.162
Authors: Martin Sénécal; Marc Brisson; Elizabeth Maunsell; Alex Ferenczy; Eduardo L Franco; Sam Ratnam; François Coutlée; Joel M Palefsky; James A Mansi Journal: Sex Transm Infect Date: 2011-02-18 Impact factor: 3.519
Authors: Susanne Krüger Kjaer; Trung Nam Tran; Par Sparen; Laufey Tryggvadottir; Christian Munk; Erik Dasbach; Kai-Li Liaw; Jan Nygård; Mari Nygård Journal: J Infect Dis Date: 2007-10-31 Impact factor: 5.226
Authors: Susan Arendt; Lakshman Rajagopal; Catherine Strohbehn; Nathan Stokes; Janell Meyer; Steven Mandernach Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2013-08-19 Impact factor: 3.390