The effectiveness and heterogeneity of carbon emissions trading scheme in China.

Some developed economies have run emission trading scheme (ETS) to mitigate carbon emissions. However, we know little about the effectiveness and heterogeneity of ETS in a context of developing economy. This paper evaluates the effectiveness and heterogeneity of China's pilot ETS, the first ETS run in a developing economy. Difference-in-difference (DID) and difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD) methods are employed to analyze provincial industrial-level data. The heterogeneity of ETS effects is also explored from regional and industrial perspectives. The empirical results show that the pilot ETS can effectively reduce pilot industries' carbon emissions. The reduction effect of the pilot ETS has a substantial heterogeneity for different pilot provinces and industries. Carbon emissions are reduced by the pilot ETS through technological innovation and the adjustment of industrial structure. The empirical results suggest that policymakers may consider establishing a national ETS and differentiating carbon quota allowance in covered regions and industries in the current pilot ETS.