Analysis of the effects of thermal stress on milk production in a humid tropical climate using linear and non-linear models.

The decline of milk production in crossbred cattle during the onset of summer was evaluated using lactation records of the cows (n = 48) maintained at the Livestock Research Station, Thiruvazhamkunnu, for the period between January 2019 and March 2019. Climate data were obtained from an automatic weather station maintained on the campus. The temperature-humidity index (THI) was used to assess the thermal stress on animals. Values varied between 70.78 and 83.93 during the study period, indicating that the cows were exposed to mild and moderate stress. Highly significant negative correlations (p < 0.01) were observed between the average temperature, THI, and milk production. Linear, logarithmic, power, and polynomial models linking milk production and THI were used to fit the data. The coefficient of determination (R2) in general exceeded 0.85 and these equations could be used to model the drop in milk production or predict production loss due to thermal stress. The rate of decline in daily milk production observed in the study was 2.13% per unit increase in THI. A general linear model that included THI, parity, and the stage of lactation as independent variables, and milk production as a response variable, was also tested. Parity and stages of lactation were observed to influence forenoon and afternoon milk production significantly (p < 0.01). The temperature-humidity index also had a significant effect on forenoon milk production (p < 0.05) and afternoon milk production (p < 0.01).