Nobuo Nishi1, Nayu Ikeda1, Takehiro Sugiyama2,3, Kayo Kurotani4,5, Motohiko Miyachi6. 1. International Center for Nutrition and Information, National Institute of Health and Nutrition, National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition, Tokyo, Japan. 2. Institute for Global Health Policy Research, Bureau of International Health Cooperation, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan. 3. Department of Health Services Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. 4. Department of Nutritional Epidemiology and Shokuiku, National Institute of Health and Nutrition, National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition, Tokyo, Japan. 5. Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, Showa Women's University, Tokyo, Japan. 6. Department of Physical Activity Research, National Institute of Health and Nutrition, National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition, Tokyo, Japan.
Abstract
Objectives: This study examined how healthcare costs might change by reducing long-term care needs among older Japanese people. Methods: A simulation model was constructed comprising two aging chains for independent and dependent people aged ≥65 years by sex. Changes in the base run from 2020 to 2040 were compared with those in two hypothetical scenarios: a 2% annual reduction in death rates (S1), and S1 plus a 2% annual reduction in the proportion of dependent people aged 65 years and in transition rates from the independent to dependent state for people aged ≥65 years (S2). Results: In the base run, the population increased by 13.0% for men and 11.3% for women, and the proportion of dependent people increased by 4.6% for men but decreased by 13.4% for women. The sum of medical and long-term care expenditure increased in the base run, S1, and S2 by 8.2, 27.4, and 16.4%, respectively, for men and women combined. Conclusions: Healthcare costs will increase as death rates fall, but the increase will be attenuated if the proportion of dependent people decreases.
Objectives: This study examined how healthcare costs might change by reducing long-term care needs among older Japanese people. Methods: A simulation model was constructed comprising two aging chains for independent and dependent people aged ≥65 years by sex. Changes in the base run from 2020 to 2040 were compared with those in two hypothetical scenarios: a 2% annual reduction in death rates (S1), and S1 plus a 2% annual reduction in the proportion of dependent people aged 65 years and in transition rates from the independent to dependent state for people aged ≥65 years (S2). Results: In the base run, the population increased by 13.0% for men and 11.3% for women, and the proportion of dependent people increased by 4.6% for men but decreased by 13.4% for women. The sum of medical and long-term care expenditure increased in the base run, S1, and S2 by 8.2, 27.4, and 16.4%, respectively, for men and women combined. Conclusions: Healthcare costs will increase as death rates fall, but the increase will be attenuated if the proportion of dependent people decreases.
Authors: Brian K Chen; Hawre Jalal; Hideki Hashimoto; Sze-Chuan Suen; Karen Eggleston; Michael Hurley; Lena Schoemaker; Jay Bhattacharya Journal: J Econ Ageing Date: 2016-06-23
Authors: Pieter H M van Baal; Johan J Polder; G Ardine de Wit; Rudolf T Hoogenveen; Talitha L Feenstra; Hendriek C Boshuizen; Peter M Engelfriet; Werner B F Brouwer Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2008-02 Impact factor: 11.069