Angel Paternina-Caicedo1,2, Umesh Parashar3, Christian Garcia-Calavaro4, Lucia Helena de Oliveira5, Nelson Alvis-Guzman6, Fernando De la Hoz-Restrepo7. 1. Grupo de Investigación en Economía de la Salud, Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia; apaterninac@unisinucartagena.edu.co. 2. Fundación Hospital Infantil Napoleón Franco Pareja - Casa del Niño, Cartagena, Colombia. 3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia. 4. Salud Publica, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile. 5. Pan American Health Organization, World Health Organization, Washington District of Columbia. 6. Grupo de Investigación en Economía de la Salud, Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia. 7. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aim in our analysis to estimate the reduction of diarrhea-related mortality rates after introduction of a rotavirus vaccine in subregions of 4 Latin American countries. METHODS: We selected diarrhea-related deaths from individual-level data from death certificates in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. Counts were aggregated by region, year and month, and age group for each country. We ran an interrupted time-series analysis using Poisson regression to obtain seasonal and trend-adjusted estimates of impact. Results are reported as percentages (1 - mortality rate ratio). RESULTS: We found a reduction in diarrhea-related mortality in children <5 years old of 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15 to 20) for Mexico, 39% (95% CI, 35 to 44) for Colombia, 19 (95% CI, 17 to 22) for Brazil, and -26% (95% CI, -40 to -14) for Ecuador. Using wavelet analyses, we found a reduction of 6- and 12-month seasonality in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We also found that the increased reduction of diarrhea-related deaths was larger with greater prevaccine burden of diarrhea in infants. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings and available evidence support the recommendation from the World Health Organization for the monovalent and/or pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in countries worldwide. We found an increased benefit in those settings with a higher burden of infant diarrhea-related deaths.
BACKGROUND: We aim in our analysis to estimate the reduction of diarrhea-related mortality rates after introduction of a rotavirus vaccine in subregions of 4 Latin American countries. METHODS: We selected diarrhea-related deaths from individual-level data from death certificates in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. Counts were aggregated by region, year and month, and age group for each country. We ran an interrupted time-series analysis using Poisson regression to obtain seasonal and trend-adjusted estimates of impact. Results are reported as percentages (1 - mortality rate ratio). RESULTS: We found a reduction in diarrhea-related mortality in children <5 years old of 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15 to 20) for Mexico, 39% (95% CI, 35 to 44) for Colombia, 19 (95% CI, 17 to 22) for Brazil, and -26% (95% CI, -40 to -14) for Ecuador. Using wavelet analyses, we found a reduction of 6- and 12-month seasonality in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We also found that the increased reduction of diarrhea-related deaths was larger with greater prevaccine burden of diarrhea in infants. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings and available evidence support the recommendation from the World Health Organization for the monovalent and/or pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in countries worldwide. We found an increased benefit in those settings with a higher burden of infant diarrhea-related deaths.