Global Ecological Niche Modeling of Current and Future Distribution of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRv) with an Ensemble Modeling Algorithm.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats which negatively impacted the livelihood of the farmers and pastoralists in Africa and Asia. To overcome the consequences of the disease, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. In support of this eradication program, we developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modeling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa = 0.82, TSS = 0.88 and ROC = 0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%), and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia, Azerbaijan, are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040 suitable territories for PPRv will diminish indicating the odds are with us in the eradication process of the disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication program of the disease set by the OIE and FAO. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.