Bobeck S Modjtahedi1, Jun Wu2, Tiffany Q Luong2, Nainesh K Gandhi3, Donald S Fong4, Wansu Chen2. 1. Department of Research and Evaluation, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Pasadena, California; Eye Monitoring Center, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Baldwin Park, California; Department of Ophthalmology, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Baldwin Park, California. Electronic address: bobmodj@gmail.com. 2. Department of Research and Evaluation, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Pasadena, California. 3. Department of Cardiology, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, San Bernardino County, California. 4. Department of Research and Evaluation, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Pasadena, California; Eye Monitoring Center, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Baldwin Park, California; Department of Ophthalmology, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Baldwin Park, California.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between the severity of diabetic retinopathy and the future risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with type 2 diabetes who underwent diabetic retinopathy screening via fundus photography. METHODS: The relationship between retinopathy status and the 5-year risk of first-time CVA, MI, CHF, and all-cause mortality was investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions that controlled for age, gender, race or ethnicity, hemoglobin A1c, duration of diabetes, high-density lipoprotein level, low-density lipoprotein level, history of hypertension, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, tobacco use, statin use, body mass index, urine microalbumin-to-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year risk of first-time CVA, MI, CHF, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Seventy-seven thousand three hundred seventy-six patients were included in this study. The average age was 59.8 years with 53.6% male, 31.2% non-Hispanic White, and 41.4% Hispanic patients. Diabetic retinopathy was significantly associated with all outcomes on multivariate analysis. Compared with patients with no retinopathy, those with minimal nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) had a higher risk of CVA (hazard ratio [HR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.46), MI (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.15-1.46), CHF (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.19-1.40), and death (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25). Similarly, patients with moderate to severe NPDR had a higher risk of each outcome (CVA: HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.29-1.89; MI: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.57-2.34; CHF: HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.66-2.18, and death: HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.32-1.82), as did patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (CVA: HR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.84-3.48; MI: HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.26-2.83; CHF: HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.47-2.59; and death: HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.36-2.56). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetic retinopathy is significantly associated with future risk of CVA, MI, CHF, and death, with higher degrees of retinopathy appearing to carry a heightened risk for each outcome. Retinal information may provide valuable insights into patients' risk of future vascular disease and death.
PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between the severity of diabetic retinopathy and the future risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with type 2 diabetes who underwent diabetic retinopathy screening via fundus photography. METHODS: The relationship between retinopathy status and the 5-year risk of first-time CVA, MI, CHF, and all-cause mortality was investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions that controlled for age, gender, race or ethnicity, hemoglobin A1c, duration of diabetes, high-density lipoprotein level, low-density lipoprotein level, history of hypertension, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, tobacco use, statin use, body mass index, urine microalbumin-to-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year risk of first-time CVA, MI, CHF, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Seventy-seven thousand three hundred seventy-six patients were included in this study. The average age was 59.8 years with 53.6% male, 31.2% non-Hispanic White, and 41.4% Hispanic patients. Diabetic retinopathy was significantly associated with all outcomes on multivariate analysis. Compared with patients with no retinopathy, those with minimal nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) had a higher risk of CVA (hazard ratio [HR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.46), MI (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.15-1.46), CHF (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.19-1.40), and death (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25). Similarly, patients with moderate to severe NPDR had a higher risk of each outcome (CVA: HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.29-1.89; MI: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.57-2.34; CHF: HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.66-2.18, and death: HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.32-1.82), as did patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (CVA: HR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.84-3.48; MI: HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.26-2.83; CHF: HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.47-2.59; and death: HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.36-2.56). CONCLUSIONS:Diabetic retinopathy is significantly associated with future risk of CVA, MI, CHF, and death, with higher degrees of retinopathy appearing to carry a heightened risk for each outcome. Retinal information may provide valuable insights into patients' risk of future vascular disease and death.