Julia Stockmann1,2, Inge M W Verberk3,4, Charlotte E Teunissen3, Klaus Gerwert5,6, Nina Timmesfeld7, Robin Denz7, Brian Budde1,2, Julia Lange-Leifhelm1,2, Philip Scheltens4, Wiesje M van der Flier4, Andreas Nabers1,2. 1. Competence Center for Biospectroscopy, Center for Protein Diagnostics (PRODI), Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany. 2. Department of Biophysics, Ruhr University Bochum, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Bochum, Germany. 3. Neurochemistry Laboratory, Department of Clinical Chemistry, Amsterdam Neuroscience, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 4. Alzheimer Center Amsterdam, Department of Neurology, Amsterdam Neuroscience, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 5. Competence Center for Biospectroscopy, Center for Protein Diagnostics (PRODI), Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany. klaus.gerwert@rub.de. 6. Department of Biophysics, Ruhr University Bochum, Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, Bochum, Germany. klaus.gerwert@rub.de. 7. Ruhr University Bochum, Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Bochum, Germany.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We evaluated Aβ misfolding in combination with Aβ42/40 ratio as a prognostic tool for future clinical progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). METHODS: Baseline plasma samples (n = 203) from SCD subjects in the SCIENCe project and Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (age 61 ± 9 years; 57% male, mean follow-up time 2.7 years) were analyzed using immuno-infrared-sensor technology. Within 6 years of follow-up, 22 (11%) individuals progressed to MCI or dementia due to AD. Sensor readout values > 1646 cm- 1 reflected normal Aβ folding; readouts at ≤ 1646 cm- 1 reflected low and at < 1644 cm- 1 high misfolding. We used Cox proportional hazard models to quantify Aβ misfolding as a prognostic biomarker for progression to MCI and dementia due to AD. The accuracy of the predicted development of MCI/AD was determined by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curve analyses that take individual follow-up and conversion times into account. Statistical models were adjusted for age, sex, and APOEε4 status. Additionally, plasma Aβ42/40 data measured by SIMOA were statistically analyzed and compared. RESULTS: All 22 patients who converted to MCI or AD-dementia within 6 years exhibited Aβ misfolding at baseline. Cox analyses revealed a hazard ratio (HR) of 19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-157.8) for future conversion of SCD subjects with high misfolding and of 11 (95% CI 1.0-110.1) for those with low misfolding. T-ROC curve analyses yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94 (95% CI 0.86-1.00; 6-year follow-up) for Aβ misfolding in an age, sex, and APOEε4 model. A similar model with plasma Aβ42/40 ratio yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00). The AUC increased to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99-1.00) after inclusion of both Aβ misfolding and the Aβ42/40 ratio. CONCLUSIONS: A panel of structure- and concentration-based plasma amyloid biomarkers may predict conversion to clinical MCI and dementia due to AD in cognitively unimpaired subjects. These plasma biomarkers provide a noninvasive and cost-effective alternative for screening early AD pathological changes. Follow-up studies and external validation in larger cohorts are in progress for further validation of our findings.
BACKGROUND: We evaluated Aβ misfolding in combination with Aβ42/40 ratio as a prognostic tool for future clinical progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). METHODS: Baseline plasma samples (n = 203) from SCD subjects in the SCIENCe project and Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (age 61 ± 9 years; 57% male, mean follow-up time 2.7 years) were analyzed using immuno-infrared-sensor technology. Within 6 years of follow-up, 22 (11%) individuals progressed to MCI or dementia due to AD. Sensor readout values > 1646 cm- 1 reflected normal Aβ folding; readouts at ≤ 1646 cm- 1 reflected low and at < 1644 cm- 1 high misfolding. We used Cox proportional hazard models to quantify Aβ misfolding as a prognostic biomarker for progression to MCI and dementia due to AD. The accuracy of the predicted development of MCI/AD was determined by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curve analyses that take individual follow-up and conversion times into account. Statistical models were adjusted for age, sex, and APOEε4 status. Additionally, plasma Aβ42/40 data measured by SIMOA were statistically analyzed and compared. RESULTS: All 22 patients who converted to MCI or AD-dementia within 6 years exhibited Aβ misfolding at baseline. Cox analyses revealed a hazard ratio (HR) of 19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-157.8) for future conversion of SCD subjects with high misfolding and of 11 (95% CI 1.0-110.1) for those with low misfolding. T-ROC curve analyses yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94 (95% CI 0.86-1.00; 6-year follow-up) for Aβ misfolding in an age, sex, and APOEε4 model. A similar model with plasma Aβ42/40 ratio yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00). The AUC increased to 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99-1.00) after inclusion of both Aβ misfolding and the Aβ42/40 ratio. CONCLUSIONS: A panel of structure- and concentration-based plasma amyloid biomarkers may predict conversion to clinical MCI and dementia due to AD in cognitively unimpaired subjects. These plasma biomarkers provide a noninvasive and cost-effective alternative for screening early AD pathological changes. Follow-up studies and external validation in larger cohorts are in progress for further validation of our findings.
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