Analysis and modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis environmental prevalence in Minnesota using soil collected to compare basal and outbreak levels.

Outbreaks of blastomycosis, caused by the fungus Blastomyces dermatitidis, occur in endemic areas of the United States and Canada but the geographic range of blastomycosis is expanding. Previous studies inferred the location of B. dermatitidis through epidemiologic data associated with outbreaks because culture of B. dermatitidis from the environment is often unsuccessful. In this study, we used a culture-independent, PCR-based method to identify B. dermatitidis DNA in environmental samples using the BAD1 promoter region. We tested 250 environmental samples collected in Minnesota, either associated with blastomycosis outbreaks or environmental samples collected from high- and low-endemic regions to determine basal prevalence of B. dermatitidis in the environment. We identified a fifth BAD1 promoter haplotype of B. dermatitidis prevalent in Minnesota. Ecological niche analysis identified latitude, longitude, elevation, and site classification as environmental parameters associated with the presence of B. dermatitidis Using this analysis, a Random Forest model predicted B. dermatitidis presence in basal environmental samples with 75% accuracy. These data support use of culture-independent, PCR-based environmental sampling to track spread into new regions and to characterize the unknown B. dermatitidis environmental niche.Importance Upon inhalation of spores from the fungus Blastomyces dermatitidis from the environment, humans and animals can develop the disease blastomycosis. Based on disease epidemiology, B. dermatitidis is known to be endemic in the United States and Canada around the Great Lakes and in the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys but is starting to emerge in other areas. B. dermatitidis is extremely difficult to culture from the environment so little is known about the environmental reservoirs for this pathogen. We used a culture-independent PCR-based assay to identify the presence of B. dermatitidis DNA in soil samples from Minnesota. By combining molecular data with ecological niche modeling, we were able to predict the presence of B. dermatitidis in environmental samples with 75% accuracy and to define characteristics of the B. dermatitidis environmental niche. Importantly, we showed the effectiveness of using a PCR-based assay to identify B. dermatitidis in environmental samples.