Zixi Chen1,2,3, Fuqiang Liu4, Bin Li5,6, Xiaoqing Peng2, Lin Fan7, Aijing Luo2,8. 1. XiangYa School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China. 2. Key Laboratory of Medical Information Research(Central South University), Changsha, Hunan, China. 3. The Fifth People's Hospital of Qinghai Province, Xining, Qinghai, China. 4. Hunan Provincial Center For Disease Control And Prevention, Changsha, Hunan, China. 5. Big Data Center of Geospatial and Natural Resources of Qinghai Province, Xining, Qinghai, China. 6. Geomatics Technology and Application Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province, Xining, Qinghai, China. 7. Natural Resources Remote Sensing Center of Qinghai Province, Xining, Qinghai, China. 8. The second Xiangya hospital of Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: China's "13th 5-Year Plan" (2016-2020) for the prevention and control of sudden acute infectious diseases emphasizes that epidemic monitoring and epidemic focus surveys in key areas are crucial for strengthening national epidemic prevention and building control capacity. Establishing an epidemic hot spot areas and prediction model is an effective means of accurate epidemic monitoring and surveying. Objective: This study predicted hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic hot spot areas, based on multi-source environmental variable factors. We calculated the contribution weight of each environmental factor to the morbidity risk, obtained the spatial probability distribution of HFRS risk areas within the study region, and detected and extracted epidemic hot spots, to guide accurate epidemic monitoring as well as prevention and control. Methods: We collected spatial HFRS data, as well as data on various types of natural and human social activity environments in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2014. Using the information quantity method and logistic regression modeling, we constructed a risk-area-prediction model reflecting the epidemic intensity and spatial distribution of HFRS. Results: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of training samples and test samples were 0.840 and 0.816. From 2015 to 2019, HRFS case site verification showed that more than 82% of the cases occurred in high-risk areas. DISCUSSION: This research method could accurately predict HFRS hot spot areas and provided an evaluation model for Hunan Province. Therefore, this method could accurately detect HFRS epidemic high-risk areas, and effectively guide epidemic monitoring and surveyance.
BACKGROUND: China's "13th 5-Year Plan" (2016-2020) for the prevention and control of sudden acute infectious diseases emphasizes that epidemic monitoring and epidemic focus surveys in key areas are crucial for strengthening national epidemic prevention and building control capacity. Establishing an epidemic hot spot areas and prediction model is an effective means of accurate epidemic monitoring and surveying. Objective: This study predicted hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic hot spot areas, based on multi-source environmental variable factors. We calculated the contribution weight of each environmental factor to the morbidity risk, obtained the spatial probability distribution of HFRS risk areas within the study region, and detected and extracted epidemic hot spots, to guide accurate epidemic monitoring as well as prevention and control. Methods: We collected spatial HFRS data, as well as data on various types of natural and human social activity environments in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2014. Using the information quantity method and logistic regression modeling, we constructed a risk-area-prediction model reflecting the epidemic intensity and spatial distribution of HFRS. Results: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of training samples and test samples were 0.840 and 0.816. From 2015 to 2019, HRFS case site verification showed that more than 82% of the cases occurred in high-risk areas. DISCUSSION: This research method could accurately predict HFRS hot spot areas and provided an evaluation model for Hunan Province. Therefore, this method could accurately detect HFRS epidemic high-risk areas, and effectively guide epidemic monitoring and surveyance.
Authors: Kyrre L Kausrud; Atle Mysterud; Harald Steen; Jon Olav Vik; Eivind Østbye; Bernard Cazelles; Erik Framstad; Anne Maria Eikeset; Ivar Mysterud; Torstein Solhøy; Nils Chr Stenseth Journal: Nature Date: 2008-11-06 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: Moritz U G Kraemer; Marianne E Sinka; Kirsten A Duda; Adrian Q N Mylne; Freya M Shearer; Christopher M Barker; Chester G Moore; Roberta G Carvalho; Giovanini E Coelho; Wim Van Bortel; Guy Hendrickx; Francis Schaffner; Iqbal R F Elyazar; Hwa-Jen Teng; Oliver J Brady; Jane P Messina; David M Pigott; Thomas W Scott; David L Smith; G R William Wint; Nick Golding; Simon I Hay Journal: Elife Date: 2015-06-30 Impact factor: 8.140