Do e-cigarette sales reduce the demand for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products in the US? Evidence from the retail sales data.

Despite mixed evidence, many smokers use e-cigarettes to quit smoking. With the substantial growth of e-cigarette sales in recent years, it is important to understand how it may affect FDA-approved nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products in the US. This study aims to investigate the impact of e-cigarette prices and TV advertising on the demand for NRT products. Quarterly (2010 Q1-2017 Q4) retail sales and price data of e-cigarettes and NRT gum and patch, compiled from Nielsen retail store scanner database, were linked with contemporaneous quarterly television rating data for e-cigarettes and NRT products, compiled from Kantar Media, using state and county identifier. Market, year, and quarter fixed effects models were used to estimate the impact of NRT price and TV advertising, as well as e-cigarette price and TV advertising, on the demand for NRT gum and patch. NRT gum price elasticity was estimated to be -0.91. Higher patch price was found to decrease gum sales (cross-price elasticity -0.96). Higher e-cigarette prices were found to decrease NRT gum sales. Higher cigarette prices were found to increase NRT gum sales. NRT patch price elasticity was estimated to be -2.05. Higher gum price was found to increase patch sales (cross-price elasticity 0.97). E-cigarette TV advertisement was positively associated with NRT gum sales. NRT gum appeared to be complements for e-cigarettes. Recent growth in e-cigarette sales may have increased the demand for NRT gum. More studies are needed to understand the differential behavioral patterns of NRT gum users and NRT path users.