Wenyi Jin1, Yilun Xu1, Weiwei Zhu2, Ziqiang Xia1, Jinming Wu3. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China. 2. Department of Respiratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou 325000, Zhejiang Province, China. Electronic address: wzfydw@163.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for significant fibrosis (SF) by assessing physical and laboratory parameters and develop and validate a clinical score and nomogram for the prediction of SF in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: This retrospective study included 225 patients with histologically confirmed NAFLD who were divided into two cohorts using 10-fold cross validation for model training and validation. The clinical score and nomogram were used to predict the NAFLD outcome. RESULTS: The model for predicting SF (stage ≥ 2) including the free T4/free T3 ratio, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), percentage of appendicular skeletal muscle mass and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level in the training and validation cohorts yielded an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. The AUROC of the combined clinical score for the prediction of SF was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) at a cutoff value of 3 points, with a sensitivity (SE) of 77.19%, specificity (SP) of 82.88%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 63.77%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 90.30%. The nomogram had good performance in quantitatively predicting the risk probability of SF. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that a noninvasive clinical scoring system using easily available physical and laboratory variables can identify patients with NAFLD with or without SF with a high degree of accuracy. Application of this system may decrease the need for staging liver biopsy specimens and allow early identification and intervention in these high-risk patients.
BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for significant fibrosis (SF) by assessing physical and laboratory parameters and develop and validate a clinical score and nomogram for the prediction of SF in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: This retrospective study included 225 patients with histologically confirmed NAFLD who were divided into two cohorts using 10-fold cross validation for model training and validation. The clinical score and nomogram were used to predict the NAFLD outcome. RESULTS: The model for predicting SF (stage ≥ 2) including the free T4/free T3 ratio, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), percentage of appendicular skeletal muscle mass and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level in the training and validation cohorts yielded an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. The AUROC of the combined clinical score for the prediction of SF was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) at a cutoff value of 3 points, with a sensitivity (SE) of 77.19%, specificity (SP) of 82.88%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 63.77%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 90.30%. The nomogram had good performance in quantitatively predicting the risk probability of SF. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that a noninvasive clinical scoring system using easily available physical and laboratory variables can identify patients with NAFLD with or without SF with a high degree of accuracy. Application of this system may decrease the need for staging liver biopsy specimens and allow early identification and intervention in these high-risk patients.