Anja J Rueten-Budde1, Veroniek M van Praag2, Michiel A J van de Sande2, Marta Fiocco1,3. 1. Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands. 2. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands. 3. Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A dynamic prediction model for patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities was previously developed to predict updated overall survival probabilities throughout patient follow-up. This study updates and externally validates the dynamic model. METHODS: Data from 3826 patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma, treated surgically with curative intent were used to update the dynamic PERsonalised SARcoma Care (PERSARC) model. Patients were added to the model development cohort and grade was included in the model. External validation was performed with data from 1111 patients treated at a single tertiary center. RESULTS: Calibration plots show good model calibration. Dynamic C-indices suggest that the model can discriminate between high- and low-risk patients. The dynamic C-indices at 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after surgery were equal to 0.697, 0.790, 0.822, 0.818, 0.812, and 0.827, respectively. CONCLUSION: Results from the external validation show that the dynamic PERSARC model is reliable in predicting the probability of surviving an additional 5 years from a specific prediction time point during follow-up. The model combines patient-, treatment-specific and time-dependent variables such as local recurrence and distant metastasis to provide accurate survival predictions throughout follow-up and is available through the PERSARC app.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A dynamic prediction model for patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities was previously developed to predict updated overall survival probabilities throughout patient follow-up. This study updates and externally validates the dynamic model. METHODS: Data from 3826 patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma, treated surgically with curative intent were used to update the dynamic PERsonalised SARcoma Care (PERSARC) model. Patients were added to the model development cohort and grade was included in the model. External validation was performed with data from 1111 patients treated at a single tertiary center. RESULTS: Calibration plots show good model calibration. Dynamic C-indices suggest that the model can discriminate between high- and low-risk patients. The dynamic C-indices at 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after surgery were equal to 0.697, 0.790, 0.822, 0.818, 0.812, and 0.827, respectively. CONCLUSION: Results from the external validation show that the dynamic PERSARC model is reliable in predicting the probability of surviving an additional 5 years from a specific prediction time point during follow-up. The model combines patient-, treatment-specific and time-dependent variables such as local recurrence and distant metastasis to provide accurate survival predictions throughout follow-up and is available through the PERSARC app.
Authors: H S Femke Hagenmaier; Annelies G K van Beeck; Rick L Haas; Veroniek M van Praag; Leti van Bodegom-Vos; Jos A van der Hage; Stijn Krol; Frank M Speetjens; Arjen H G Cleven; Ana Navas; Herman M Kroon; Rieneke G Moeri-Schimmel; Nicolette A C Leyerzapf; Michiel A J van de Sande Journal: Sarcoma Date: 2021-10-21
Authors: Gijsbert M Kalisvaart; Willem Grootjans; Judith V M G Bovée; Hans Gelderblom; Jos A van der Hage; Michiel A J van de Sande; Floris H P van Velden; Johan L Bloem; Lioe-Fee de Geus-Oei Journal: Diagnostics (Basel) Date: 2021-12-04
Authors: Andrea Sambri; Emilia Caldari; Andrea Montanari; Michele Fiore; Luca Cevolani; Federico Ponti; Valerio D'Agostino; Giuseppe Bianchi; Marco Miceli; Paolo Spinnato; Massimiliano De Paolis; Davide Maria Donati Journal: Cancers (Basel) Date: 2021-12-16 Impact factor: 6.639