Machine learning approach for predicting Fusarium culmorum and F. proliferatum growth and mycotoxin production in treatments with ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymer films containing pure components of essential oils.

Fusarium culmorum and F. proliferatum can grow and produce, respectively, zearalenone (ZEA) and fumonisins (FUM) in different points of the food chain. Application of antifungal chemicals to control these fungi and mycotoxins increases the risk of toxic residues in foods and feeds, and induces fungal resistances. In this study, a new and multidisciplinary approach based on the use of bioactive ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH) films containing pure components of essential oils (EOCs) and machine learning (ML) methods is evaluated. Bioactive EVOH-EOC films were made incorporating cinnamaldehyde (CINHO), citral (CIT), isoeugenol (IEG) or linalool (LIN). Several ML methods (neural networks, random forests and extreme gradient boosted trees) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were applied and compared for modeling fungal growth and toxin production under different water activity (aw) (0.96 and 0.99) and temperature (20 and 28 °C) regimes. The effective doses to reduce fungal growth rate (GR) by 50, 90 and 100% (ED50, ED90, and ED100) of EOCs in EVOH films were in the ranges 200 to >3330, 450 to >3330, and 660 to >3330 μg/fungal culture (25 g of partly milled maize kernels in Petri dish), respectively, depending on the EOC, aw and temperature. The type of EVOH-EOC film and EOC doses significantly affected GR in both species and ZEA and FUM production. Temperature also affected GR and aw only affected GR and FUM production of F. proliferatum. EVOH-CIT was the most effective film against both species and ZEA and FUM production. Usually, when the EOC levels increased, GR and mycotoxin levels in the medium decreased although some treatments in combination with certain aw and temperature values induced ZEA production. Random forest models predicted the GR of F. culmorum and F. proliferatum and ZEA and FUM production better than neural networks or extreme gradient boosted trees. The MLR mode provided the worst performance. This is the first approach on the ML potential in the study of the impact that bioactive EVOH films containing EOCs and environmental conditions have on F. culmorum and F. proliferatum growth and on ZEA and FUM production. The results suggest that these innovative packaging systems in combination with ML methods can be promising tools in the prediction and control of the risks associated with these toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins in food.