Fleischner Society Visual Emphysema CT Patterns Help Predict Progression of Emphysema in Current and Former Smokers: Results from the COPDGene Study.

Background The correlation between visual emphysema patterns and subsequent progression of disease may provide a way to enrich a study population for treatment trials of emphysema. Purpose To evaluate the potential relationship between emphysema visual subtypes and progression of emphysema and gas trapping. Materials and Methods Current and former smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) enrolled in the prospective Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02445183) between 2008 and 2011 had their Fleischner Society visual CT scores assessed at baseline, quantitative inspiratory, and expiratory CT and at 5 years. They also underwent pulmonary function testing at baseline CT and at 5 years. The dependent variables were inspiratory lung density at 15th percentile (adjusted for lung volume) as a measure of emphysema and percentage of lung volume with attenuation less than -856 HU at expiratory CT as a measure of air trapping. Statistical analysis used a linear mixed model, adjusted for age, height, sex, race, smoking status, and scanner make. Results A total of 4166 participants (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [standard deviation]; 2091 [50%] men) were evaluated. In participants with COPD (1655 participants, 40%), those with visual presence of mild, moderate, and confluent emphysema at baseline CT showed a mean decline in lung density of 4.6 g/L ± 1.1 (P < .001), 6.7 g/L ± 1.1 (P < .001), and 6.4 g/L ± 1.2 (P < .001), respectively, compared with 2.4 g/L ± 1.3 (P < .001) for those with trace emphysema. For participants without COPD, those with visual presence of mild and moderate emphysema at baseline CT showed a mean decline in lung density of 3.6 g/L ± 1.0 (P < .001) and 3.1 g/L ± 1.6 (P < .001), respectively, compared with 1.8 g/L ± 1.0 (P < .001) for those with trace emphysema. Conclusion The pattern of parenchymal emphysema at baseline CT was an independent predictor of subsequent progression of emphysema in participants who are current or former cigarette smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.