Doralisa Morrone1, Sonja Kroep2, Fabrizio Ricci3,4, Giulia Renda3, Giuseppe Patti5, Paulus Kirchhof6,7, Ling-Hsiang Chuang2, Ben van Hout2,8, Raffaele De Caterina1,4. 1. Division of Cardiology, Department of Surgical, Medical and Molecular Pathology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Pisa, 50124 Pisa, Italy. 2. Pharmerit-An OPEN Health Company, 3068 AV Rotterdam, The Netherlands. 3. Institute of Cardiology and Center of Excellence on Aging, G. d'Annunzio University, 66100 Chieti-Pescara, Italy. 4. Fondazione VillaSerena per la Ricerca, Città Sant'Angelo, 65013 Pescara, Italy. 5. Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Diseases, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy. 6. University of Birmingham Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, UHB and SWBH NHS Trusts, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK. 7. Heart and Vascular Center, Hamburg University, 20251 Hamburg, Germany. 8. School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality, predictors of which are poorly characterized. We investigated the predictive power of the commonly used CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years [doubled], diabetes, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease [prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, or aortic plaque], age 65-75 years, sex category [female]), the HAS-BLED score (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio [INR], elderly [age ≥ 65 years], drugs/alcohol concomitantly), and their combination for mortality in AF patients. METHODS: The PREvention oF thromboembolic events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF) was a prospective registry including AF patients across seven European countries. We used logistic regression to analyze the relationship between the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and outcomes, including mortality, at one year. We evaluated the performance of logistic regression models by discrimination measures (C-index and DeLong test) and calibration measures (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with bootstrap techniques for internal validation. RESULTS: In 5209 AF patients with complete information on both scores, average one-year mortality was 3.1%. We found strong gradients between stroke/systemic embolic events (SSE), major bleeding and-specifically-mortality for both CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, with a similar C-statistic for event prediction. The predictive power of the models with both scores combined, removing overlapping components, was significantly enhanced (p < 0.01) compared to models including either CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED alone: for mortality, C-statistic: 0.740, compared to 0.707 for CHA2DS2-VASc or 0.646 for HAS-BLED alone. IDI analyses supported the significant improvement for the combined score model compared to separate score models for all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Both the CHA2DS2-VASc and the HAS-BLED scores predict mortality similarly in patients with AF, and a combination of their components increases prediction significantly. Such combination may be useful for investigational and-possibly-also clinical purposes.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality, predictors of which are poorly characterized. We investigated the predictive power of the commonly used CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years [doubled], diabetes, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease [prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, or aortic plaque], age 65-75 years, sex category [female]), the HAS-BLED score (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio [INR], elderly [age ≥ 65 years], drugs/alcohol concomitantly), and their combination for mortality in AFpatients. METHODS: The PREvention oF thromboembolic events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF) was a prospective registry including AFpatients across seven European countries. We used logistic regression to analyze the relationship between the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and outcomes, including mortality, at one year. We evaluated the performance of logistic regression models by discrimination measures (C-index and DeLong test) and calibration measures (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with bootstrap techniques for internal validation. RESULTS: In 5209 AFpatients with complete information on both scores, average one-year mortality was 3.1%. We found strong gradients between stroke/systemic embolic events (SSE), major bleeding and-specifically-mortality for both CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, with a similar C-statistic for event prediction. The predictive power of the models with both scores combined, removing overlapping components, was significantly enhanced (p < 0.01) compared to models including either CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED alone: for mortality, C-statistic: 0.740, compared to 0.707 for CHA2DS2-VASc or 0.646 for HAS-BLED alone. IDI analyses supported the significant improvement for the combined score model compared to separate score models for all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Both the CHA2DS2-VASc and the HAS-BLED scores predict mortality similarly in patients with AF, and a combination of their components increases prediction significantly. Such combination may be useful for investigational and-possibly-also clinical purposes.
Authors: Gregory Y H Lip; Giuseppe Boriani; Vincenzo L Malavasi; Marco Vitolo; Jacopo Colella; Francesca Montagnolo; Marta Mantovani; Marco Proietti; Tatjana S Potpara Journal: Intern Emerg Med Date: 2021-12-02 Impact factor: 5.472
Authors: Ewelina Rogalska; Anna Kurasz; Łukasz Kuźma; Hanna Bachórzewska-Gajewska; Sławomir Dobrzycki; Marek Koziński; Bożena Sobkowicz; Anna Tomaszuk-Kazberuk Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-08-21 Impact factor: 4.614