Samer Asmar1, Muhammad Zeeshan2, Muhammad Khurrum1, Jorge Con2, Mohamad Chehab1, Letitia Bible1, Rifat Latifi2, Bellal Joseph3. 1. Division of Trauma, Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Emergency Surgery, and Burns, College of Medicine, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. 2. Department of Surgery, Westchester Medical Center, Valhalla, New York. 3. Division of Trauma, Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Emergency Surgery, and Burns, College of Medicine, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona. Electronic address: bjoseph@surgery.arizona.edu.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Changes in the shock index (ΔSI) can be a predictive tool but is not established among pediatric trauma patients. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of ΔSI on mortality in pediatric trauma patients. METHODS: We performed a 2017 analysis of all pediatric trauma patients (age 0-16 y) from the ACS-TQIP. SI was defined as heart rate(HR)/systolic blood pressure(SBP). We abstracted the SI in the field (EMS), SI in the emergency department (ED) and calculated the change in SI (ΔSI = ED SI-EMS SI). Patients were divided into four age groups: 0-3 y, 4-6 y, 7-12 y, and 13-16 y and substratified into two groups based on the value of the age-group-specific ΔSI cutoff obtained with receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis; +ΔSI and -ΔSI. Our outcome measure was mortality. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: We included 31,490 patients. Mean age was 10.6 ± 4.6 y, and 65.8% were male. The overall mortality rate was 1.4%. In the age group 0-3 y the cutoff point for ΔSI was 0.29 with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 [0.62-0.79], ΔSI cutoff 4-6 y was 0.41 AUC 0.81 [0.70-0.92], ΔSI cutoff 7-12 y was 0.05 AUC 0.83 [0.76-0.90], and ΔSI cutoff 13-16 y was 0.13 AUC 0.75 [0.69-0.81]. On the Cox regression analysis, +ΔSI was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality and 24-h mortality (P ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Vital signs vary by age group in children, but ΔSI inherently accounts for this variation. ΔSI predicts mortality and may be utilized as a predictor to help guide triage of pediatric trauma patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III Prognostic.
INTRODUCTION: Changes in the shock index (ΔSI) can be a predictive tool but is not established among pediatric traumapatients. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of ΔSI on mortality in pediatric traumapatients. METHODS: We performed a 2017 analysis of all pediatric traumapatients (age 0-16 y) from the ACS-TQIP. SI was defined as heart rate(HR)/systolic blood pressure(SBP). We abstracted the SI in the field (EMS), SI in the emergency department (ED) and calculated the change in SI (ΔSI = ED SI-EMS SI). Patients were divided into four age groups: 0-3 y, 4-6 y, 7-12 y, and 13-16 y and substratified into two groups based on the value of the age-group-specific ΔSI cutoff obtained with receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis; +ΔSI and -ΔSI. Our outcome measure was mortality. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: We included 31,490 patients. Mean age was 10.6 ± 4.6 y, and 65.8% were male. The overall mortality rate was 1.4%. In the age group 0-3 y the cutoff point for ΔSI was 0.29 with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 [0.62-0.79], ΔSI cutoff 4-6 y was 0.41 AUC 0.81 [0.70-0.92], ΔSI cutoff 7-12 y was 0.05 AUC 0.83 [0.76-0.90], and ΔSI cutoff 13-16 y was 0.13 AUC 0.75 [0.69-0.81]. On the Cox regression analysis, +ΔSI was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality and 24-h mortality (P ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Vital signs vary by age group in children, but ΔSI inherently accounts for this variation. ΔSI predicts mortality and may be utilized as a predictor to help guide triage of pediatric traumapatients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III Prognostic.