MeLisa R Creamer1, Lauren M Dutra2, Saida R Sharapova3, Andrea S Gentzke3, Kevin L Delucchi4, Ruben A Smith5, Stanton A Glantz6. 1. Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States. Electronic address: melisa.creamer@nih.gov. 2. Center for Health Analytics, Media, and Policy, RTI International, Berkeley, United States. 3. Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States. 4. Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco, United States. 5. Division of Reproductive Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States. 6. Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, University of California, San Francisco, United States; Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, United States.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine if the declining trend in U.S. youth cigarette smoking changed after e-cigarettes were introduced, and if youth e-cigarette users would have been likely to smoke cigarettes based on psychosocial and demographic predictors of smoking. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was used for cross-sectional data from the 2004 to 2018 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS) to assess changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use over time. A multivariable logistic regression model used 2004-2009 NYTS data on psychosocial risk factors to predict individual-level cigarette smoking risk from 2011 to 2018. Model-predicted and actual cigarette smoking behavior were compared. RESULTS: The decline in current cigarette smoking slowed in 2014 (-0.75 [95% CI: -0.81, -0.68] to -0.26 [95% CI: -0.40, -0.12] percentage points per year). The decline in ever cigarette smoking accelerated after 2012 (-1.45 [95% CI: -1.59, -1.31] to -1.71 [95% CI: -1.75, -1.66]). Ever and current combined cigarette and/or e-cigarette use declined during 2011-2013 and increased during 2013-2014 with no significant change during 2014-2018 for either variable. The psychosocial model estimated that 69.0% of current cigarette smokers and 9.3% of current e-cigarette users (who did not smoke cigarettes) would smoke cigarettes in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of e-cigarettes was followed by a slowing decline in current cigarette smoking, a stall in combined cigarette and e-cigarette use, and an accelerated decline in ever cigarette smoking. Traditional psychosocial risk factors for cigarette smoking suggest that e-cigarette users do not fit the traditional risk profile of cigarette smokers. Published by Elsevier Inc.
OBJECTIVE: To determine if the declining trend in U.S. youth cigarette smoking changed after e-cigarettes were introduced, and if youth e-cigarette users would have been likely to smoke cigarettes based on psychosocial and demographic predictors of smoking. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was used for cross-sectional data from the 2004 to 2018 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS) to assess changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use over time. A multivariable logistic regression model used 2004-2009 NYTS data on psychosocial risk factors to predict individual-level cigarette smoking risk from 2011 to 2018. Model-predicted and actual cigarette smoking behavior were compared. RESULTS: The decline in current cigarette smoking slowed in 2014 (-0.75 [95% CI: -0.81, -0.68] to -0.26 [95% CI: -0.40, -0.12] percentage points per year). The decline in ever cigarette smoking accelerated after 2012 (-1.45 [95% CI: -1.59, -1.31] to -1.71 [95% CI: -1.75, -1.66]). Ever and current combined cigarette and/or e-cigarette use declined during 2011-2013 and increased during 2013-2014 with no significant change during 2014-2018 for either variable. The psychosocial model estimated that 69.0% of current cigarette smokers and 9.3% of current e-cigarette users (who did not smoke cigarettes) would smoke cigarettes in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of e-cigarettes was followed by a slowing decline in current cigarette smoking, a stall in combined cigarette and e-cigarette use, and an accelerated decline in ever cigarette smoking. Traditional psychosocial risk factors for cigarette smoking suggest that e-cigarette users do not fit the traditional risk profile of cigarette smokers. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Entities:
Keywords:
Adolescent; Cigarette smoking; E-cigarettes; Tobacco use
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