E-cigarette susceptibility among U.S. middle and high school students: National Youth Tobacco Survey Data Trend Analysis, 2014-2018.

Youth e-cigarette use has rapidly increased in the last few years. Susceptibility is a validated measure associated with future tobacco use. We examined trends in e-cigarette susceptibility across five years (2014-2018) of the National Youth Tobacco Survey among youth e-cigarette never users. We observed increases in overall e-cigarette susceptibility from 2014 to 2016 and decreases from 2016 to 2018. Generally, sociodemographic variables were not associated with trend effects; however, there was an interaction between linear trends with both race/ethnicity and other tobacco product (OTP) use. The percentage of youth who were susceptible to using e-cigarettes ranged from 32.9% in 2014 to 33.2% in 2018 with a high of 36.7% in 2016. We also examined the prevalence of e-cigarette susceptibility by race/ethnicity, sex, school level, OTP use, and e-cigarette harm perception. E-cigarette susceptibility was associated with race, school level, OTP ever use, and e-cigarette harm perceptions. Hispanic youth, those in high school, and OTP ever users were more likely to be susceptible to e-cigarette use compared to their counterparts across all years. E-cigarette susceptibility was most prevalent among those who perceived e-cigarettes to pose "no harm" in 2014 and "little harm" in 2018 when compared to other item response options in 2014 and 2018, respectively. This study is the first to document trends in e-cigarette susceptibility among youth. Understanding antecedents of e-cigarette use and identifying youth subgroups vulnerable to e-cigarette use is valuable to developing effective prevention efforts. Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Food and Drug Administration or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Published by Elsevier Inc.