| Literature DB >> 33267310 |
Antonio Calcagnì1, Livio Finos1, Gianmarco Altoé1, Massimiliano Pastore1.
Abstract
In this article, we provide initial findings regarding the problem of solving likelihood equations by means of a maximum entropy (ME) approach. Unlike standard procedures that require equating the score function of the maximum likelihood problem at zero, we propose an alternative strategy where the score is instead used as an external informative constraint to the maximization of the convex Shannon's entropy function. The problem involves the reparameterization of the score parameters as expected values of discrete probability distributions where probabilities need to be estimated. This leads to a simpler situation where parameters are searched in smaller (hyper) simplex space. We assessed our proposal by means of empirical case studies and a simulation study, the latter involving the most critical case of logistic regression under data separation. The results suggested that the maximum entropy reformulation of the score problem solves the likelihood equation problem. Similarly, when maximum likelihood estimation is difficult, as is the case of logistic regression under separation, the maximum entropy proposal achieved results (numerically) comparable to those obtained by the Firth's bias-corrected approach. Overall, these first findings reveal that a maximum entropy solution can be considered as an alternative technique to solve the likelihood equation.Entities:
Keywords: binary regression; data separation; maximum entropy; maximum likelihood; score function
Year: 2019 PMID: 33267310 PMCID: PMC7515101 DOI: 10.3390/e21060596
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Entropy (Basel) ISSN: 1099-4300 Impact factor: 2.524
List of symbols and abbreviations used throughout the manuscript.
| ME | maximum entropy |
| NR | Newton–Raphson algorithm |
| NFR | bias corrected Newton–Raphson algorithm |
| y | sample of observations |
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| sample space |
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| estimated vector of parameters |
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| reparameterized vector of parameters under ME |
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| density function |
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| likelihood function |
| score function | |
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| vector of estimated probabilities for |
Finney’s data on vasoconstriction in the skin of the digits. The response Y indicates the occurrence () or non-occurrence () of the vasoconstriction.
| Volume | Rate | Y |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 0.825 | 1 |
| 3.50 | 1.090 | 1 |
| 1.25 | 2.500 | 1 |
| 0.75 | 1.500 | 1 |
| 0.80 | 3.200 | 1 |
| 0.70 | 3.500 | 1 |
| 0.60 | 0.750 | 0 |
| 1.10 | 1.700 | 0 |
| 0.90 | 0.750 | 0 |
| 0.90 | 0.450 | 0 |
| 0.80 | 0.570 | 0 |
| 0.55 | 2.750 | 0 |
| 0.60 | 3.000 | 0 |
| 1.40 | 2.330 | 1 |
| 0.75 | 3.750 | 1 |
| 2.30 | 1.640 | 1 |
| 3.20 | 1.600 | 1 |
| 0.85 | 1.415 | 1 |
| 1.70 | 1.060 | 0 |
Estimates for the iris logistic regression: ME (maximum entropy), NRF (biased-corrected Newton–Raphson), NR (Newton–Raphson). Note that the NRF algorithm implements the Firth’s bias correction [7].
| ME | NRF | NR | |
|---|---|---|---|
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| 17.892 | 12.539 | 445.917 |
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| −10.091 | −6.151 | −166.637 |
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| 12.229 | 6.890 | 140.570 |
Simulation study: proportions of separation occurred in the data and non-convergence (nc) rates for NR, NRF, ME algorithms.
| n | p | Separation |
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| 15 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.085 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 50 | 1 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 200 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 15 | 5 | 0.976 | 0.237 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 50 | 5 | 0.771 | 0.771 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 200 | 5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 15 | 10 | 1.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 50 | 10 | 0.949 | 0.950 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 200 | 10 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Simulation study: averaged bias, squared averaged bias, and MSE for NR, NRF, ME algorithms.
| NR | NRF | ME | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 15 | 1 | −5.54 | 236.70 | 30.67 | 267.36 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.40 | −1.17 | 6.28 | 1.37 | 7.64 |
| 50 | 1 | −0.13 | 3.42 | 0.02 | 3.44 | −0.00 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 1.41 | −0.12 | 1.99 | 0.01 | 2.00 |
| 200 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| 15 | 5 | 10.68 | 1553.37 | 113.98 | 1667.33 | −1.22 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 4.49 | 0.20 | 5.32 | 0.04 | 5.36 |
| 50 | 5 | 7.46 | 1918.18 | 55.65 | 1973.78 | −0.44 | 2.20 | 0.20 | 2.39 | −0.11 | 1.45 | 0.01 | 1.46 |
| 200 | 5 | 0.24 | 1.58 | 0.06 | 1.64 | 0.01 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| 15 | 10 | −0.97 | 177.40 | 0.95 | 178.35 | −0.13 | 4.82 | 0.02 | 4.84 | −0.38 | 8.10 | 0.14 | 8.24 |
| 50 | 10 | 2.80 | 1490.39 | 7.83 | 1498.20 | −0.07 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.23 | −0.02 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| 200 | 10 | 0.66 | 15.29 | 0.43 | 15.72 | 0.02 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.10 | 0.48 | 0.01 | 0.50 |
Figure 1Simulation study: averaged bias, squared averaged bias, and mean squared error (MSE) for Newton–Raphson (NR), bias-corrected Newton–Raphson (NRF), maximum entropy (ME) algorithms. Note that the number of predictors p is represented column-wise (outside) whereas the sample sizes n is reported in the x-axis (inside). The measures are plotted on logarithmic scale.
Figure 2Simulation study: relative bias for NRF and ME algorithms in the conditions (A) and (B). Note that plots are paired vertically by predictor. Rate of over-estimation (under-estimation): (A) ME = 0.54 (0.46), NRF = 0.49 (0.51); (B) ME = 0.53 (0.47), NRF = 0.47 (0.53).