Predicting driver reaction time and deceleration: Comparison of perception-reaction thresholds and evidence accumulation framework.

Prediction of driver reaction to the lead vehicle motion based on the perception-reaction time (PRT) is critical for prediction of rear-end crash risk. This study determines PRT at various spacings in approaching and braking conditions, and examines the association of PRT and deceleration rate with crash risk. For these tasks, a total of 50 drivers' behavior was observed in a driving simulator experiment with 4 different scenarios - reaction to a decelerating lead vehicle, reaction to a stopped lead vehicle, perception of a lead vehicle's speed change, and perception of a slow-moving lead vehicle. The study tested three hypotheses of PRT including perception and reaction thresholds and the evidence accumulation framework using a visual variable (tau-inverse). It was found that the drivers neither reacted after a specific PRT from the start of perception nor reacted at a specific value of tau-inverse. Rather, the drivers generally reacted when the accumulation of evidence (tau-inverse) over time reached a threshold. It was also found that the magnitude of deceleration rate depends on the tau-inverse at the start of braking and hence, higher crash risk was associated with higher level of urgency and insufficient brake force rather than longer PRT. This study demonstrates that the evidence accumulation framework is a promising method of predicting driver reaction in approaching and braking conditions for different types of lead vehicle, and the level of urgency is important for predicting the probability of crash.