Alexander Rühle1, Carmen Stromberger2, Erik Haehl1, Carolin Senger2, Hélène David1, Raluca Stoian1, Constantinos Zamboglou1, Andreas Knopf3, Volker Budach4, Anca-Ligia Grosu1, Nils H Nicolay5. 1. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Freiburg - Medical Center, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Partner Site Freiburg, German Cancer Research Center (dkfz), Heidelberg, Germany. 2. Department of Radiation Oncology, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Germany; Augustenburger Platz 1, Berlin, Germany. 3. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University of Freiburg - Medical Center, Germany. 4. Department of Radiation Oncology, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Germany; Augustenburger Platz 1, Berlin, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Partner Site Berlin, German Cancer Research Center (dkfz), Heidelberg, Germany. 5. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Freiburg - Medical Center, Germany; German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) Partner Site Freiburg, German Cancer Research Center (dkfz), Heidelberg, Germany. Electronic address: nils.nicolay@uniklinik-freiburg.de.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To establish a clinically feasible prognostic score and nomogram based on easily accessible clinical data that will aid decision-making in elderly head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing (chemo)radiotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 284 elderly HNSCC patients (≥65 years) undergoing curative (chemo)radiotherapy were included for the development of a score predicting overall survival (OS) based on the beta regression coefficients from significant parameters in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with p < 0.1 as inclusion criterion. A second, external cohort of 217 elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy was used for validation. Using the aggregated data (n = 501), a nomogram was developed to predict 2- and 4-year OS. RESULTS: Karnofsky Performance Status (HR = 2.654; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR = 2.598; p < 0.001) and baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR = 1.634; p = 0.068) were prognostic for OS in the multivariate analysis. An OS score based on beta regression coefficients was created, in which reduced performance status, increased comorbidity burden and increased CRP levels were included, leading to 3 distinct survival groups. The median OS for the 3 groups amounted to 107, 28 and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The developed score was able to significantly differentiate between a favorable (median OS = 130 months), intermediate (29 months) and unfavorable prognosis (9 months) also in the external validation cohort (p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: We propose a novel, validated prognostic score based on easily accessible clinical data allowing stratification between prognostic groups of elderly HNSCC patients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. The derived nomogram for the prediction of 2-year and 4-year OS may aid decision-making for this vulnerable population.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To establish a clinically feasible prognostic score and nomogram based on easily accessible clinical data that will aid decision-making in elderly head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients undergoing (chemo)radiotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 284 elderly HNSCCpatients (≥65 years) undergoing curative (chemo)radiotherapy were included for the development of a score predicting overall survival (OS) based on the beta regression coefficients from significant parameters in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with p < 0.1 as inclusion criterion. A second, external cohort of 217 elderly HNSCCpatients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy was used for validation. Using the aggregated data (n = 501), a nomogram was developed to predict 2- and 4-year OS. RESULTS: Karnofsky Performance Status (HR = 2.654; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR = 2.598; p < 0.001) and baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR = 1.634; p = 0.068) were prognostic for OS in the multivariate analysis. An OS score based on beta regression coefficients was created, in which reduced performance status, increased comorbidity burden and increased CRP levels were included, leading to 3 distinct survival groups. The median OS for the 3 groups amounted to 107, 28 and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The developed score was able to significantly differentiate between a favorable (median OS = 130 months), intermediate (29 months) and unfavorable prognosis (9 months) also in the external validation cohort (p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: We propose a novel, validated prognostic score based on easily accessible clinical data allowing stratification between prognostic groups of elderly HNSCCpatients receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. The derived nomogram for the prediction of 2-year and 4-year OS may aid decision-making for this vulnerable population.
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