Mohammad Hussein1, Eman Toraih1,2, Rami Elshazli3, Manal Fawzy4,5, August Houghton6, Danielle Tatum7, Mary Killackey1, Emad Kandil8, Juan Duchesne9. 1. Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA. 2. Department of Histology and Cell Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Genetics Unit, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt. 3. Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Physical Therapy, Horus University - Egypt, New Damietta, Egypt. 4. Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt. 5. Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Northern Border University, Arar, Saudi Arabia. 6. Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA. 7. Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center Baton Rouge, LA. 8. Department of Surgery, Division of Endocrine and Oncologic Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA. 9. Department of Surgery, Trauma/Acute Care and Critical Care, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to systematically review and meta-analyze all literature reporting the basic reproductive number (R0), effective reproductive number (Re or Rt), and the serial interval (SI) values of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: To assess the rate at which an infectious disease can spread in a population, the 2 measures, R0 and Re or Rt, are widely used. One of the parameters which influence the calculations is the SI, the period between symptom onset in an infector and an infectee. METHODS: Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct searching up to May 10, 2020, was performed. A continuous random-effect model was applied using the DerSimonian-Laird (inverse variance) method. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 39 articles met the eligibility criteria. Our results demonstrated the mean SI was 5.45 days, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) of 4.23 to 6.66. Pooled estimates for reproduction rates was 3.14 (95% CI: 2.69-3.59) for R0 and 3.18 (95% CI: 2.89-3.47) for Rt. Subgroup analysis by geographical region and date of publication revealed variations over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. As time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values had decreased globally. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings indicate that one SARS-CoV-2-infected person is likely to infect 3 persons, supporting that COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease. As an essential objective metrics implied in risk assessment for this emerging pandemic, monitoring R0 and Re is necessary to indicate the effectiveness or failures of mitigation efforts.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to systematically review and meta-analyze all literature reporting the basic reproductive number (R0), effective reproductive number (Re or Rt), and the serial interval (SI) values of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: To assess the rate at which an infectious disease can spread in a population, the 2 measures, R0 and Re or Rt, are widely used. One of the parameters which influence the calculations is the SI, the period between symptom onset in an infector and an infectee. METHODS: Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct searching up to May 10, 2020, was performed. A continuous random-effect model was applied using the DerSimonian-Laird (inverse variance) method. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 39 articles met the eligibility criteria. Our results demonstrated the mean SI was 5.45 days, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) of 4.23 to 6.66. Pooled estimates for reproduction rates was 3.14 (95% CI: 2.69-3.59) for R0 and 3.18 (95% CI: 2.89-3.47) for Rt. Subgroup analysis by geographical region and date of publication revealed variations over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. As time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values had decreased globally. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings indicate that one SARS-CoV-2-infected person is likely to infect 3 persons, supporting that COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease. As an essential objective metrics implied in risk assessment for this emerging pandemic, monitoring R0 and Re is necessary to indicate the effectiveness or failures of mitigation efforts.
Authors: Adam Kline; Lily N Trinh; Mohammad H Hussein; Rami M Elshazli; Eman A Toraih; Juan Duchesne; Manal S Fawzy; Emad Kandil Journal: Int J Clin Pract Date: 2021-09-27 Impact factor: 3.149
Authors: Wayne M Getz; Richard Salter; Ludovica Luisa Vissat; James S Koopman; Carl P Simon Journal: J R Soc Interface Date: 2021-11-24 Impact factor: 4.118
Authors: Anna D J Korath; Jozef Janda; Eva Untersmayr; Milena Sokolowska; Wojciech Feleszko; Ioana Agache; Ahmed Adel Seida; Katrin Hartmann; Erika Jensen-Jarolim; Isabella Pali-Schöll Journal: Allergy Date: 2021-07-09 Impact factor: 14.710
Authors: Eman A Toraih; Mohammad H Hussein; Rami M Elshazli; Manal S Fawzy; August Houghton; Danielle Tatum; Mary Killackey; Emad Kandil; Juan Duchesne Journal: Ann Surg Date: 2021-01-01 Impact factor: 13.787