Modelling the effect of intervention on the transmission of malaria in East Malaysia.

To assess the public health importance of malaria on Banggi Island, Sabah, baseline epidemiological and entomological data were obtained in a study of three villages. These data were used to model the transmission of malaria using a non-seasonal version of the deterministic model of Dietz, Molineaux and Thomas. The model provided a satisfactory description of prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia. Modifications to the basic model enable the effects of mass chemotherapy with various combinations of schizonticidal and gametocidal drugs to be simulated. In this way, the relative merits of different procedures of mass drug administration can be compared. The fitted model is also used to examine the relationship between the overall prevalence of infection and the vectorial capacity, and to predict the consequences of a reduction in the size of the vector population.