Ocean circulation along the southern Chile transition region (38°-46°S): Mean, seasonal and interannual variability, with a focus on 2014-2016.

Satellite and atmospheric model fields are used to describe the wind forcing, surface ocean circulation, temperature and chlorophyll-a pigment concentrations along the coast of southern Chile in the transition region between 38° and 46°S. Located inshore of the bifurcation of the eastward South Pacific Current into the equatorward Humboldt and the poleward Cape Horn Currents, the region also includes the Chiloé Inner Sea and the northern extent of the complex system of fjords, islands and canals that stretch south from near 42°S. The high resolution satellite data reveal that equatorward currents next to the coast extend as far south as 48°-51°S in spring-summer. They also display detailed distributions of forcing from wind stress and wind stress curl near the coast and within the Inner Sea. Between 38°-46°S, both winds and surface currents during 1993-2016 change directions seasonally from equatorward during summer upwelling to poleward during winter downwelling, with cooler SST and greater surface chlorophyll-a concentrations next to the coast during upwelling, opposite conditions during downwelling. Over interannual time scales during 1993-2016, there is a strong correlation between equatorial El Niño events and sea level and a moderate correlation with alongshore currents. Looking more closely at the 2014-2016 period, we find a marginal El Niño during 2014 and a strong El Niño during 2015 that connect the region to the tropics through the oceanic pathway, with some atmospheric connections through the phenomenon of atmospheric blocking (as noted by others). The period also includes a Harmful Algal Bloom of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella during early-2016 that occurred during a sequence of physical conditions (winds, currents and temperatures) that would favor such a bloom. The most anomalous physical condition during this specific bloom is an extreme case of atmospheric blocking that creates a long period of calm in austral autumn after strong upwelling in austral summer. The blocking is related to the 2015-2016 El Niño and an unusual coincident positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.