Verity Fox1, Christina Dalman2, Henrik Dal3, Anna-Clara Hollander3, James B Kirkbride1, Alexandra Pitman4. 1. Division of Psychiatry, UCL, London, W1T 7NF, United Kingdom. 2. Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Centre for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, The Region Stockholm, Sweden. 3. Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden. 4. Division of Psychiatry, UCL, London, W1T 7NF, United Kingdom; Camden and Islington NHS Foundation Trust, London, NW1 0PE, United Kingdom. Electronic address: a.pitman@ucl.ac.uk.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD] is associated with suicide risk in the general population, whether this differs by sex, or what the population impact of PTSD is for suicide. METHODS: We constructed a nationwide cohort of all people living in Sweden, born 1973-1997, followed from their 14th birthday (or immigration, if later) until suicide, other death, emigration or 31 December 2016. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios [HR], and calculated the population impact of PTSD on suicide. We included sensitivity analyses to explore effects of outcome and exposure definitions, and to account for potential competing risks. RESULTS: Of 3,177,706 participants, 22,361 (0•7%) were diagnosed with PTSD, and 6,319 (0•2%) died by suicide over 49•2 million person-years. Compared with women and men without PTSD, suicide rates were 6•74 (95%CI: 5•61-8•09) and 3•96 (95%CI: 3•12-5•03) times higher in those with PTSD, respectively, after sociodemographic adjustment. Suicide rates remained elevated in women (HR: 2•61; 95%CI: 2•16-3•14) and men (HR: 1•67; 95%CI: 1•31-2•12) after adjustment for previous psychiatric conditions; attenuation was driven by previous non-fatal suicide attempts. Findings were insensitive to definitions or competing risks. If causal, 1•6% (95%CI: 1•2-2•1) of general population suicides could be attributed to PTSD, and up to 53.7% (95%CI: 46.1-60.2) in people with PTSD. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding remains possible due to depressive and anxiety disorders diagnosed in primary care but unrecorded in these registers. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical guidelines for the management of people with PTSD should recognise increased suicide risks.
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD] is associated with suicide risk in the general population, whether this differs by sex, or what the population impact of PTSD is for suicide. METHODS: We constructed a nationwide cohort of all people living in Sweden, born 1973-1997, followed from their 14th birthday (or immigration, if later) until suicide, other death, emigration or 31 December 2016. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios [HR], and calculated the population impact of PTSD on suicide. We included sensitivity analyses to explore effects of outcome and exposure definitions, and to account for potential competing risks. RESULTS: Of 3,177,706 participants, 22,361 (0•7%) were diagnosed with PTSD, and 6,319 (0•2%) died by suicide over 49•2 million person-years. Compared with women and men without PTSD, suicide rates were 6•74 (95%CI: 5•61-8•09) and 3•96 (95%CI: 3•12-5•03) times higher in those with PTSD, respectively, after sociodemographic adjustment. Suicide rates remained elevated in women (HR: 2•61; 95%CI: 2•16-3•14) and men (HR: 1•67; 95%CI: 1•31-2•12) after adjustment for previous psychiatric conditions; attenuation was driven by previous non-fatal suicide attempts. Findings were insensitive to definitions or competing risks. If causal, 1•6% (95%CI: 1•2-2•1) of general population suicides could be attributed to PTSD, and up to 53.7% (95%CI: 46.1-60.2) in people with PTSD. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding remains possible due to depressive and anxiety disorders diagnosed in primary care but unrecorded in these registers. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical guidelines for the management of people with PTSD should recognise increased suicide risks.
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