Lisa M Lines1, Julia Cohen2, Justin Kirschner2, Michael T Halpern3, Erin E Kent4, Michelle A Mollica3, Ashley Wilder Smith3. 1. Center for Advanced Methods Development, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States; Population and Quantitative Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Medical School, 55 Lake Ave. North, United States. Electronic address: llines@rti.org. 2. Center for Advanced Methods Development, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States. 3. Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, Healthcare Delivery Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States. 4. Gillings School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To develop and internally validate an illness burden index among Medicare beneficiaries before or after a cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Data source: SEER-CAHPS, linking Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, Medicare enrollment and claims, and Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (Medicare CAHPS) survey data providing self-reported sociodemographic, health, and functional status information. To generate a score for everyone in the dataset, we tabulated 4 groups within each annual subsample (2007-2013): 1) Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries or 2) Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries, surveyed before cancer diagnosis; 3) MA beneficiaries or 4) Medicare FFS beneficiaries surveyed after diagnosis. Random survival forests (RSFs) predicted 12-month all-cause mortality and drew predictor variables (mean per subsample = 44) from 8 domains: sociodemographic, cancer-specific, health status, chronic conditions, healthcare utilization, activity limitations, proxy, and location-based factors. Roughly two-thirds of the sample was held out for algorithm training. Error rates based on the validation ("out-of-bag," OOB) samples reflected the correctly classified percentage. Illness burden scores represented predicted cumulative mortality hazard. RESULTS: The sample included 116,735 Medicare beneficiaries with cancer, of whom 73 % were surveyed after their cancer diagnosis; overall mean mortality rate in the 12 months after survey response was 6%. SEER-CAHPS Illness Burden Index (SCIBI) scores were positively skewed (median range: 0.29 [MA, pre-diagnosis] to 2.85 [FFS, post-diagnosis]; mean range: 2.08 [MA, pre-diagnosis] to 4.88 [MA, post-diagnosis]). The highest decile of the distribution had a 51 % mortality rate (range: 29-71 %); the bottom decile had a 1% mortality rate (range: 0-2 %). The error rate was 20 % overall (range: 9% [among FFS enrollees surveyed after diagnosis] to 36 % [MA enrollees surveyed before diagnosis]). CONCLUSIONS: This new morbidity measure for Medicare beneficiaries with cancer may be useful to future SEER-CAHPS users who wish to adjust for comorbidity.
PURPOSE: To develop and internally validate an illness burden index among Medicare beneficiaries before or after a cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Data source: SEER-CAHPS, linking Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, Medicare enrollment and claims, and Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (Medicare CAHPS) survey data providing self-reported sociodemographic, health, and functional status information. To generate a score for everyone in the dataset, we tabulated 4 groups within each annual subsample (2007-2013): 1) Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries or 2) Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries, surveyed before cancer diagnosis; 3) MA beneficiaries or 4) Medicare FFS beneficiaries surveyed after diagnosis. Random survival forests (RSFs) predicted 12-month all-cause mortality and drew predictor variables (mean per subsample = 44) from 8 domains: sociodemographic, cancer-specific, health status, chronic conditions, healthcare utilization, activity limitations, proxy, and location-based factors. Roughly two-thirds of the sample was held out for algorithm training. Error rates based on the validation ("out-of-bag," OOB) samples reflected the correctly classified percentage. Illness burden scores represented predicted cumulative mortality hazard. RESULTS: The sample included 116,735 Medicare beneficiaries with cancer, of whom 73 % were surveyed after their cancer diagnosis; overall mean mortality rate in the 12 months after survey response was 6%. SEER-CAHPS Illness Burden Index (SCIBI) scores were positively skewed (median range: 0.29 [MA, pre-diagnosis] to 2.85 [FFS, post-diagnosis]; mean range: 2.08 [MA, pre-diagnosis] to 4.88 [MA, post-diagnosis]). The highest decile of the distribution had a 51 % mortality rate (range: 29-71 %); the bottom decile had a 1% mortality rate (range: 0-2 %). The error rate was 20 % overall (range: 9% [among FFS enrollees surveyed after diagnosis] to 36 % [MA enrollees surveyed before diagnosis]). CONCLUSIONS: This new morbidity measure for Medicare beneficiaries with cancer may be useful to future SEER-CAHPS users who wish to adjust for comorbidity.
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