| Literature DB >> 33188767 |
Marco Dettori1, Giovanna Deiana2, Ginevra Balletto3, Giuseppe Borruso4, Beniamino Murgante5, Antonella Arghittu6, Antonio Azara7, Paolo Castiglia8.
Abstract
The present work aims to study the role of air pollutants in relation to the number of deaths per each Italian province affected by COVID-19. To do that, specific mortality from COVID-19 has been standardized for each Italian province and per age group (10 groups) ranging from 0 to 9 years to >90 years, based on the 2019 national population figures. The link between air pollutants and COVID-19 mortality among Italian provinces was studied implementing a linear regression model, whereas the wide set of variables were examined by means of LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation), relating the spatial component of COVID-19 related data with a mix of environmental variables as explanatory variables. As results, in some provinces, namely the Western Po Valley provinces, the SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) is much higher than expected, and the presence of PM10 was independently associated with the case status. Furthermore, the results for LISA on SMR and PM10 demonstrate clusters of high-high values in the wide Metropolitan area of Milan and the Po Valley area respectively, with a certain level of overlap of the two distributions in the area strictly considered Milan. In conclusion, this research appears to find elements to confirm the existence of a link between pollution and the risk of death due to the disease, in particular, considering land take and air pollution, this latter referred to particulate (PM10). For this reason, we can reiterate the need to act in favour of policies aimed at reducing pollutants in the atmosphere, by means of speeding up the already existing plans and policies, targeting all sources of atmospheric pollution: industries, home heating and traffic.Entities:
Keywords: Air pollutants; COVID-19; Italy; PM(10); Particulate matter; SARS-CoV-2
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2020 PMID: 33188767 PMCID: PMC7657007 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110459
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Environ Res ISSN: 0013-9351 Impact factor: 6.498
Environmental variables and related sources of acquisition of values.
| Variable | Source | Data origin |
|---|---|---|
| PM10 average yearly values (μg/mc) | Il SOLE 24 ORE | |
| PM2.5 average yearly values (μg/mc) | ISPRA | |
| NO2 average yearly values (μg/mc) | Legambiente | |
| Number of trees per 100 inhabitants in public spaces | ||
| Land take/soil consumption (ha/sqm) | ||
| Metres of cycle paths per 100 inhabitants | ||
| % of urban green spaces | ISPRA | |
| Pedestrianised road surface (m2/inhabitant) | ISTAT | |
| Number of cars in circulation per 100 inhabitants | ACI | |
| Number of motorcycles in circulation per 100 inhabitants |
Selected Italian provinces ranked by Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) > 1.
| Province | Population (2019) | Population/km2 | SMR | 95% CIinf | 95% CIsup | PM10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodi | 230,198 | 294.0 | 7.44 | 6.88 | 8.02 | 34.5 |
| Bergamo | 1,114,590 | 404.6 | 7.21 | 6.95 | 7.47 | 29.0 |
| Cremona | 358,955 | 202.7 | 6.51 | 6.12 | 6.92 | 33.5 |
| Piacenza | 287,152 | 111.0 | 6.50 | 6.08 | 6.94 | 28.5 |
| Brescia | 1,265,954 | 264.5 | 5.01 | 4.82 | 5.21 | 32.5 |
| Pavia | 545,888 | 183.9 | 4.20 | 3.95 | 4.46 | 32.5 |
| Parma | 451,631 | 131.0 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 3.80 | 31.5 |
| Mantova | 412,292 | 176.1 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.65 | 28.7 |
| Lecco | 337,380 | 418.8 | 2.88 | 2.61 | 3.17 | 22.5 |
| Pesaro | 358,886 | 139.8 | 2.82 | 2.57 | 3.09 | 26.0 |
| Milan | 3,250,315 | 2063.0 | 2.54 | 2.46 | 2.63 | 32.5 |
| Reggio Emilia | 531,891 | 232.1 | 2.37 | 2.17 | 2.58 | 31.5 |
| Aosta | 125,666 | 38.5 | 2.33 | 1.94 | 2.75 | 17.0 |
| Sondrio | 181,095 | 56.7 | 2.31 | 1.99 | 2.66 | 22.5 |
| Monza | 873,935 | 2155.7 | 2.12 | 1.97 | 2.27 | 33.0 |
| Como | 599,204 | 468.5 | 1.96 | 1.79 | 2.13 | 29.0 |
| Alessandria | 421,284 | 118.4 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 2.11 | 34.5 |
| Trento | 541,098 | 87.2 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 1.94 | 21.5 |
| Imperia | 213,840 | 185.2 | 1.66 | 1.43 | 1.90 | 19.0 |
| Biella | 175,585 | 192.3 | 1.47 | 1.24 | 1.73 | 21.8 |
| Bolzano | 531,178 | 71.8 | 1.46 | 1.29 | 1.64 | 19.0 |
| Genova | 841,180 | 458.7 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.55 | 20.8 |
| Rimini | 339,017 | 391.9 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.58 | 27.0 |
| Modena | 705,393 | 262.4 | 1.37 | 1.24 | 1.51 | 31.0 |
| Trieste | 234,493 | 1103.5 | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.50 | 19.5 |
| La Spezia | 219,556 | 249.1 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 20.0 |
| Pescara | 318,909 | 259.2 | 1.27 | 1.09 | 1.47 | 25.5 |
| Savona | 276,064 | 178.5 | 1.27 | 1.09 | 1.45 | 19.5 |
| Novara | 369,018 | 275.3 | 1.25 | 1.09 | 1.43 | 25.5 |
| Verona | 926,497 | 299.2 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 31.0 |
| Massa | 194,878 | 168.8 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 1.47 | 14.0 |
| Asti | 214,638 | 142.1 | 1.19 | 0.99 | 1.41 | 33.5 |
| Vercelli | 170,911 | 82.1 | 1.13 | 0.92 | 1.37 | 30.0 |
| Verbania | 158,349 | 70.0 | 1.12 | 0.90 | 1.37 | 15.0 |
| Bologna | 1,014,619 | 274.1 | 1.09 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 24.0 |
| Varese | 890,768 | 743.4 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 21.0 |
Average yearly values in micrograms/m3.
Fig. 1Forest plot showing the SMR values and the relative 95% confidence intervals calculated for the 36 selected Italian provinces (color should not be used). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Pairwise correlation analysis.
| PM10 | NO2 | PM2.5 | CP | PA | Trees | Soil | UGS | Moto | Cars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0000 | ||||||||||
| 0.5007* | 1.0000 | |||||||||
| 0.8884* | 0.4658* | 1.0000 | ||||||||
| 0.5218* | 0.3849* | 0.3982* | 1.0000 | |||||||
| 0.2668 | 0.1734 | 0.3535 | 0.1786 | 1.0000 | ||||||
| 0.3238 | 0.0898 | 0.2328 | 0.4202* | 0.0694 | 1.0000 | |||||
| 0.1446 | 0.4581* | 0.1566 | 0.1011 | 0.0477 | −0.1510 | 1.0000 | ||||
| −0.0139 | 0.2475 | 0.0596 | −0.0618 | 0.1780 | 0.1086 | −0.0637 | 1.0000 | |||
| −0.1695 | 0.0312 | −0.1737 | −0.0731 | −0.0364 | −0.1049 | 0.2912 | −0.1205 | 1.0000 | ||
| −0.2510 | −0.3380 | −0.2145 | −0.2973 | −0.3410 | 0.0992 | −0.4500* | 0.0606 | −0.2837 | 1.0000 |
Abbreviations: CP = cycle paths; PA = pedestrian areas; UGS = urban green spaces; moto = motorcycles.
*p-value<0.05.
Linear regression analysis for the association between environmental variables and SMR.
| Variables | Coefficient | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PM10 | 0.147 | 0.001 | 0.059–0.234 |
| NO2 | 0.003 | 0.887 | −0.036 - 0.041 |
| PM2.5 | −0.034 | 0.439 | −0.119 - 0.052 |
| Cycle paths | −0.003 | 0.350 | −0.010 - 0.003 |
| Pedestrianised areas | −0.374 | 0.151 | −0.887 - 0.139 |
| No. Trees/100 inhabitants | 0.006 | 0.586 | −0.017 - 0.029 |
| Land take/soil consumption | −0.001 | 0.986 | −0.163 - 0.161 |
| % Urban green spaces | −0.000 | 0.975 | −0.002 - 0.002 |
| Motorcycles | 0.024 | 0.442 | −0.038 - 0.086 |
| Cars | −0.045 | 0.106 | −0.099 - 0.009 |
Fig. 2Relationship between SMR and PM10. Red circles: Po Valley provinces (color should be used). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Fig. 3SMR – Standardized Mortality Ratio per Italian Province and PM10 level per Italian provinces (color should be used). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Fig. 4Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation – LISA. SMR and PM10 (color should be used). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)