Stochastic risk assessment of urban soils contaminated by heavy metals in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan's growing economy has been posing a threat to the natural environment in the country. The study aimed to investigate the status of soil contamination by five heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, and Cr) in Kazakhstan during 2010-2018 as well as its impact on the population. Data for the analysis were collected from the governmental monitoring agency, which has reported the concentrations of five heavy metals in the Kazakhstan soil each year. Preliminary screening suggested the four most contaminated cities (Balkhash, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Ridder, and Shymkent). Mean soil concentrations in these cities varied between 251 and 442 mg/kg for Pb, 5-9 mg/kg for Cd, 8-138 mg/kg for Cu, 87-178 mg/kg for Zn, and 2-5 mg/kg for Cr. Analysis of geo-accumulation index pointed out the possible anthropogenic origin of the contamination by Pb and Cd in these cities (mean Igeo was 3.81 for Pb and 3.45 for Cd). Further probabilistic risk assessment for these cities demonstrated that mean hazard indices for children fluctuated between 1 and 2 in two cities (Shymkent and Balkhash), whereas cancer risks for both age groups stayed in the range of 1 × 10-6 and 5 × 10-6, indicating that soil remediation is urgently required for the health of the citizens and environments. Both ~60-90% of adults and ~30-60% of children cases exceeded the threshold of carcinogenic assessment (1 × 10-6), suggesting that a large portion of the population in these cities could be affected by heavy metals in soil. The study provides background understanding for decision making on remediation actions and environmental policy and hazardous waste management in Kazakhstan.