Association of Subclinical Heart Maladaptation With the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure Risk Score for Incident Heart Failure.

Importance: The Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) estimate the 10-year risk for symptomatic heart failure (HF) from routine clinical data. The PCP-HF score should detect asymptomatic individuals with cardiac maladaptation preceding HF symptoms for it to be a useful HF prediction tool in primary prevention. Objective: To assess the concordance between PCP-HF risk scoring and the presence of subclinical cardiac maladaptation in the community. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional analysis included participants enrolled in the Flemish Study on Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes who underwent a clinical examination including echocardiography between May 2005 and January 2015. Participants younger than 30 years, older than 79 years, had prevalent cardiovascular disease, and/or had suboptimal echocardiographic imaging quality were excluded. Analysis began February 2020 and ended April 2020. Exposures: Ten-year HF risk as calculated from routine clinical data using the PCP-HF. Based on tertile limits, participants were categorized as having low (≤0.4%), intermediate (0.4%-2.4%), and high (≥2.4%) 10-year HF risk score. Main Outcomes and Measures: Echocardiographic profiles of subclinical heart remodeling and dysfunction.
Results: A total of 1020 individuals were analyzed (mean [SD] age, 52.8 [11.4] years; 541 female [53.0%]). The prevalence of left ventricular (LV) remodeling and dysfunction was significantly higher from low to intermediate and high 10-year HF risk score. A doubling in 10-year HF risk score was associated with higher odds for LV concentric remodeling (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% CI, 1.36-1.61; P < .001), LV hypertrophy (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.51-1.83; P < .001), abnormal LV longitudinal strain (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19; P < .001), and LV diastolic dysfunction (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.94-2.69; P < .001). Moreover, the PCP-HF score detected echocardiographic abnormalities with an accuracy of 74% (LV concentric remodeling), 78% (LV hypertrophy), 59% (abnormal LV longitudinal strain), and 87% (LV diastolic dysfunction). The likelihood of LV concentric remodeling, hypertrophy, and diastolic dysfunction were 3.1, 3.8, and 9.4 times higher in participants with high 10-year HF risk score than the average population risk, respectively (P < .001). Of all PCP-HF score components, age, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure were key correlates of echocardiographic abnormalities in multivariable-adjusted analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: PCP-HF risk scoring adequately detected individuals with subclinical heart maladaptation that precedes HF symptoms by years. Thus, it may be a valuable HF prediction tool in primary prevention.