Todd A Florin1, Lilliam Ambroggio2, Douglas Lorenz3, Andrea Kachelmeyer4, Richard M Ruddy4, Nathan Kuppermann5, Samir S Shah6. 1. Department of Pediatrics, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine & Division of Emergency Medicine, Ann and Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 2. Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Section of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO. 3. Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY. 4. Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Division of Emergency Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center. 5. Departments of Emergency Medicine and Pediatrics, University of California, Davis School of Medicine and UC Davis Health, Sacramento, CA. 6. Divisions of Hospital Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infections in children, no tools exist to risk stratify children with suspected CAP. We developed and validated a prediction model to risk stratify and inform hospitalization decisions in children with suspected CAP. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of children age 3 months to 18 years with suspected CAP in a pediatric emergency department (ED). Primary outcome was disease severity, defined as mild (discharge home or hospitalization for <24 hours with no oxygen or intravenous (IV) fluids), moderate (hospitalization <24 hours with oxygen or IV fluids, or hospitalization >24 hours), or severe (intensive care unit (ICU) stay for >24 hours, septic shock, vasoactive agents, positive-pressure ventilation, chest drainage, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death). Ordinal logistic regression and bootstrapped backwards selection were used to derive and internally validate our model. RESULTS: Of 1128 children, 371 (32.9%) developed moderate disease and 48 (4.3%) severe disease. Severity models demonstrated excellent discrimination (optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.81) and outstanding calibration. Severity predictors in the final model included respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygenation, retractions, capillary refill, atelectasis or pneumonia on chest radiograph, and pleural effusion. CONCLUSIONS: We derived and internally validated a score that accurately predicts disease severity in children with suspected CAP. Once externally validated, this score has potential to facilitate management decisions by providing individualized risk estimates that can be used in conjunction with clinical judgment to improve the care of children with suspected CAP.
BACKGROUND: Although community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infections in children, no tools exist to risk stratify children with suspected CAP. We developed and validated a prediction model to risk stratify and inform hospitalization decisions in children with suspected CAP. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of children age 3 months to 18 years with suspected CAP in a pediatric emergency department (ED). Primary outcome was disease severity, defined as mild (discharge home or hospitalization for <24 hours with no oxygen or intravenous (IV) fluids), moderate (hospitalization <24 hours with oxygen or IV fluids, or hospitalization >24 hours), or severe (intensive care unit (ICU) stay for >24 hours, septic shock, vasoactive agents, positive-pressure ventilation, chest drainage, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death). Ordinal logistic regression and bootstrapped backwards selection were used to derive and internally validate our model. RESULTS: Of 1128 children, 371 (32.9%) developed moderate disease and 48 (4.3%) severe disease. Severity models demonstrated excellent discrimination (optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.81) and outstanding calibration. Severity predictors in the final model included respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygenation, retractions, capillary refill, atelectasis or pneumonia on chest radiograph, and pleural effusion. CONCLUSIONS: We derived and internally validated a score that accurately predicts disease severity in children with suspected CAP. Once externally validated, this score has potential to facilitate management decisions by providing individualized risk estimates that can be used in conjunction with clinical judgment to improve the care of children with suspected CAP.
Authors: Todd A Florin; Lilliam Ambroggio; Samir S Shah; Richard M Ruddy; Eric S Nylen; Lauren Balmert Journal: Pediatr Infect Dis J Date: 2021-12-01 Impact factor: 2.129