Sylvia L Ranjeva1, Avery Tung2, Peter Nagele2, Daniel S Rubin3. 1. Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care, and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA. 2. Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 3. Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. Electronic address: drubin@dacc.uchicago.edu.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop parsimonious models of in-hospital mortality and morbidity risk after perioperative acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis. SETTING: National Inpatient Sample (2008-2013), a 20% sample of all non-federal in-patient hospitalizations in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Patients 45 years or older who experienced perioperative AMI during elective admission for noncardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: The study used a mixed principal components analysis and multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality after perioperative AMI. A model incorporating only preoperative risk factors, defined by the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), was compared with a "full risk factor" model, incorporating a large set of preoperative AMI risk factors. The risk of post-AMI disposition to an intermediate care or skilled nursing facility, a marker of functional impairment, then was evaluated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the present study, 15,574 cases of AMI after elective noncardiac surgery were identified (0.42%, corresponding with 78,122 cases nationally), with a 12.4% in-hospital mortality rate. The "RCRI-only" model was the best-fit model of post-AMI in-hospital mortality risk, without loss of predictive accuracy compared with the "full risk factor" model (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.77-0.82] v area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.81, 95% CI [0.77-0.83], respectively). Post-AMI mortality risk was the highest for perioperative complications, including sepsis (odds ratio 4.95, 95% CI [4.32-5.67]). Conversely, functional impairment was best predicted by the "full-risk factor" model and depended strongly on chronic preoperative comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: The RCRI provides a simple but adequate model of preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality after perioperative AMI.
OBJECTIVES: To develop parsimonious models of in-hospital mortality and morbidity risk after perioperative acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis. SETTING: National Inpatient Sample (2008-2013), a 20% sample of all non-federal in-patient hospitalizations in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Patients 45 years or older who experienced perioperative AMI during elective admission for noncardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: The study used a mixed principal components analysis and multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality after perioperative AMI. A model incorporating only preoperative risk factors, defined by the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), was compared with a "full risk factor" model, incorporating a large set of preoperative AMI risk factors. The risk of post-AMI disposition to an intermediate care or skilled nursing facility, a marker of functional impairment, then was evaluated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the present study, 15,574 cases of AMI after elective noncardiac surgery were identified (0.42%, corresponding with 78,122 cases nationally), with a 12.4% in-hospital mortality rate. The "RCRI-only" model was the best-fit model of post-AMI in-hospital mortality risk, without loss of predictive accuracy compared with the "full risk factor" model (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.77-0.82] v area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.81, 95% CI [0.77-0.83], respectively). Post-AMI mortality risk was the highest for perioperative complications, including sepsis (odds ratio 4.95, 95% CI [4.32-5.67]). Conversely, functional impairment was best predicted by the "full-risk factor" model and depended strongly on chronic preoperative comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: The RCRI provides a simple but adequate model of preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality after perioperative AMI.
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