Literature DB >> 33145297

Prognostic nomogram on clinicopathologic features and serum indicators for advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 inhibitors.

Rong Chai1, Yinxing Fan1,2, Jiayi Zhao3, Fan He1, Jianong Li1, Yiping Han1.   

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have appeared as a promising therapy regimen for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but with an unsatisfying therapeutic response and inefficiency of a single predictive biomarker in patients' selection.
METHODS: Central data of clinicopathologic features, peripheral blood indicators, and treatment records were collected in advanced NSCLC patients accepting PD-1 inhibitors in Changhai Hospital from July 2016 to September 2019. The OS probability nomogram was developed according to Akaike Information Criterion (stepAIC) selected factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and calibration. C-index and decision curve analysis were used to compare with the previously reported model (Botticelli Model). Computers resampling 500 times (Bootstrap 500 times) were performed to validate the model internally. According to the nomogram-based total point scores (TPS), we divided patients into different risk groups.
RESULTS: A total of 110 patients were enrolled in this study. Six predictors, including liver metastasis, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS), second- or third-line immunotherapy, baseline levels of CRP, cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA21-1), were selected to set up the nomogram. The C-index of the current nomogram was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72-0.80), keeping the same accuracy as the earlier one. Calibration plots showed slight underestimation in patients with predictive mortality <44% at 12 months and overestimation in patients with predictive mortality >44%. Decision curve analysis showed that the current nomogram was with a higher net benefit rate than the earlier model. According to the cut-off points of TPS, patients were divided into three subgroups: low risk (TPS ≤118), intermediate-risk (118< TPS ≤189), and high risk (TPS >189). A significant OS difference was observed among subgroups. Median OS was 6.6, 4.5, 1.3 months, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We proposed a novel nomogram model on easily available and inexpensive clinicopathologic features, peripheral blood indicators which is beneficial in individual risk assessment for advanced NSCLC patients before receiving PD-1 inhibitors, and assisting clinicians in accurately determining therapeutic decisions. 2020 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Nomogram; advanced non-small cell lung cancer (advanced NSCLC); clinicopathologic characteristics; immunotherapy; peripheral blood biomarkers

Year:  2020        PMID: 33145297      PMCID: PMC7575979          DOI: 10.21037/atm-20-4297

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Ann Transl Med        ISSN: 2305-5839


Introduction

The latest epidemiological data indicate that lung cancer still links to the second most common cancer with the highest mortality rate on a global scale (1). As a malignant tumor with complex histological types, about 85% of lung cancer cases belong to non-small cell lung cancer cells (NSCLC) with a five-year survival rate of 19% (2,3). In the past two decades, significant evolvement of treatment in NSCLC has been made with the introduction of several lines of small molecule tyrosine inhibitors in patients with EGFR, ALK, ROS1 mutations and the discovery of potent KRAS locking inhibitors. Similarly, with an impressive clinical benefit and tolerable adverse effect, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized the management of advanced NSCLC patients without actionable oncogenic drivers, improving the five-year survival rate to 16% (4). The fast-growing number of immunotherapeutic patients and undesirable response rates underline the importance of finding predictive biomarkers to aid clinical decision making. Widely tested as the expression of the PD-L1 on tumor cells or immune cells determined by immunohistochemistry has, PD-L1 is a suboptimal predictive biomarker due to the dynamic changes of PD-L1 expression over time, intra-tumoral heterogeneity, absence of a uniform guideline for test method and positive clinical threshold (5-7). Another extensively studied predictive biomarker tumor mutation burden (TMB) reflects the expression level of unstable genome induced neoantigens (8), which is promising in clinical application but with the limitation of high cost and shortage of consensus on detection methods (9,10). Other potential predictors such as tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (11), tumor-specific genomics (12), were explored but have not yet been proven to be feasible in clinical practice. Based on the multifactorial nature of cancer-immune interactions and ever-changing tumor immune microenvironment (TME), combining parameters are supposed to be the future of response prediction to immunotherapies. Blank (13) proposed a conception of “cancer immunogram” that enhanced T cell activity was the mechanism of the ultimate effect of immunotherapies. Seven dimensions may be the first framework of the “cancer immunogram.” Using relevant parameters to set up a prognostic model may be an essential direction for the supervision of immunotherapeutic effects in patients with advanced NSCLC. Botticelli (14) developed a nomogram based on three clinicopathological factors, including liver and lung metastases and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS), to predict overall survival (OS) probability in NSCLC patients accepting nivolumab. Before, it was easily available, inexpensive, and allowing longitudinal observation that promoted to the increasing research of peripheral biomarkers such as neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (15), serum tumor markers (16) and inflammatory parameters (17). The study aimed to develop an OS probability predictive model to evaluate individual risk in advanced NSCLC patients before receiving PD-1 inhibitors by using easily accessible clinicopathological parameters and serum biomarkers. We present the following article in accordance with the TRIPOD reporting checklist (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/atm-20-4297).

Methods

Patients

We reviewed the electronic medical records of all patients with recurrent or advanced (stage IIIB to IV) NSCLC who had accepted PD-1 inhibitors (nivolumab or pembrolizumab) monotherapy or combined-therapy as first-line, maintenance, second-line, or further line regimen at Changhai Hospital between July 2016 and September 2019. From this review, we found a total of 126 patients receiving the injection of PD-1 inhibitors. Patients who received injection of PD-1 inhibitor with complete clinical data, therapeutic and following-up information were enrolled into data analysis. Patients with autoimmune diseases, other malignancies, and symptomatic interstitial lung diseases were excluded. According to the criteria, 110 individuals were included in data analysis. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki (as revised in 2013), and was reviewed and approved by the ethics committee of Changhai Hospital. All patients had signed informed consent.

Data acquisition

Data on clinicopathological features, peripheral blood indicators, and treatment records were extracted from the electronic inpatient record system or acquired by telephone. Follow-up, including gender, age, ECOG PS, smoking status, maximum lesion diameter, metastatic sites, EGFR/ALK/ROS1 mutation status, tumor staging, PD-L1 expression level, and other clinical pathological features were gathered. The baseline complete blood cell count and its ratio, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) and other serum indicators; immunotherapeutic regimens, commencement time of PD-1 inhibitors. All data were last updated in December 2019. Complete blood count (CBC) was performed before the first injection of PD-1 inhibitor (baseline) and at the follow-up time point. Serum CRP concentration was determined with immunoturbidimetry. By immunoradiometric assay, CYFRA21-1 was measured. All operations and tests are carried out in accordance with the kit guidelines. Calculate formula: nutritional prognosis index (PNI) = albumin (g/L) + 5 × lymphocyte counts ×109/L; NLR = ANC/ALC; PLR = PLT/ALC; monocytes-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) = AMC/ALC. ANC, ALC, PLT and AMC were the counts of absolute neutrophils, absolute lymphocytes, platelet and monocytes, respectively.

Treatment and efficiency assessment

For the reason of the respective study, not all patients received standard injection does of nivolumab (3 mg/kg every 2 weeks) or pembrolizumab (200 mg every 3 weeks). Part of patients adopted combined therapy with antiangiogenic medicines, radiotherapy, or chemotherapies. Chest CT was undergone at every 8–9 weeks to evaluate the radiological response of tumors. The best response pattern and disease progression were evaluated according to the RESIST1.1. The definition of progression-free survival (PFS) and OS were following earlier reports. Patients without observed clinical or radiographic disease progression or who were still alive were censored on the date of the last follow-up.

Statistical analysis

Mean standard deviation or median (min-max) was used to describe continual variables. Categorical variables were presented as percentages. COX univariate and multivariate survival analysis were applied to evaluate the impact of peripheral blood parameters and clinicopathological factors on PFS and OS. Then, in univariate analysis, OS-related variables (P<0.05) were included in Stepwise Akaike Information Criterion (stepAIC) analysis to select out factors for the establishment of an OS probability predictive nomogram. C-index of discrimination and calibration curves were presented to qualify the predictive accuracy of the nomogram (18). And 500 bootstrap re-samplings were performed to validate this model (19). C-index and decision curve analysis (DCA) was executed to compare the predictive accuracy and net benefit rates between the current model and the Botticelli model (14). At last, X-tile software was applied to determine the cut-off points of the nomogram-based total point scores (TPS). Kaplan-Meier curves and Log-rank tests were used to qualify the performance of current model in stratifying the risk of patients. All statistical analyses were performed through the Empower Stats (http://www.empowerstats.com, X&Y Solutions, Inc., Boston, MA, USA) and R software 3.6.2 (http://www.r-project.org). A two-tailed P value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Patient characteristics

The average age of patients was 63.8±9.7 years, and 80.0% were males. Former or current smokers make up 63.6% of the subjects. Half of the patients were lung squamous carcinoma, forty-nine cases with adenocarcinoma, six cases with large cell carcinoma, or mixed adenosquamous cancer. Eighty-nine (80.9%) patients had ECOG PS 0 or 1, and 11.8% involved liver metastasis. There were 39 (35.5%), 24 (21.8%), and 47 (42.7%) patients received immunotherapy as first-line, second-line, or ≥ three-line treatment, respectively. Sixty-nine patients accepted PD-1 inhibitor combining with radiotherapy, antiangiogenic drugs or chemotherapy, and mono-immunotherapy was applied in 41 patients. Other baseline clinicopathological factors were shown in .
Table 1

Patients clinicopathological characteristics (n=110)

VariablesN (%)
Age (years)63.8±9.7
Gender
   Male88 (80.0)
   Female22 (20.0)
Smoking
   No40 (36.4)
   Yes70 (63.6)
TNM stage
   III25 (22.7)
   IV85 (77.3)
Pleural metastasis
   No75 (68.2)
   Yes35 (31.8)
Lung metastasis
   No59 (53.6)
   Yes51 (46.4)
Bone metastasis
   No76 (69.1)
   Yes34 (30.9)
Liver metastasis
   No97 (88.2)
   Yes13 (11.8)
Braine metastasis
   No96 (87.3)
   Yes14 (12.7)
Histological types
   Squamous cell carcinoma55 (50.0)
   Adenocarcinoma49 (44.5)
   Other6 (5.5)
EGFR mutation
   No100 (90.9)
   Yes10 (9.1)
ROS1 mutation
   No108 (98.2)
   Yes2 (1.8)
ECOG PS
   0 or 189 (80.9)
   221 (19.1)
Treatment line
   First-line39 (35.5)
   Second-line24 (21.8)
   ≥ Three-line47 (42.7)
Mono-immunotherapy
   No69 (62.7)
   Yes41 (37.3)
Patients had an average baseline level of CRP 19.1 mg/L and CYFRA21-1 6.5 ng/mL. Other baseline levels of serum parameters were presented in . At the last date of follow-up, the median OS was 5.5 months, thirty-eight patients died.
Table 2

Baseline level of peripheral parameters

ParametersMean ± SD/median (Q1–Q3)
ANC (×109/L)5.1±2.7
AMC (×109/L)0.7±0.5
ALC (×109/L)1.4±0.5
NLR4.2±3.0
MLR0.6±0.5
PLT (×1012/L)269.1±131.4
PLR217±138
Hb (g/dL)123±20
CRP (mg/L)19.1 (1.2–250.0)
CEA (ng/mL)4.7 (1.1–1,500.0)
CYFRA21-1 (ng/mL)6.5 (0.6–100.0)
LDH (IU/L)217.8±87.0
PNI44.1±6.3
Alb (g/L)37.6±4.3

NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; MLR, monocytes-to-lymphocyte ratio; CRP, C-reactive protein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CYFRA21-1, cytokeratin 19 fragment; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; PNI, nutritional prognosis index.

NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; MLR, monocytes-to-lymphocyte ratio; CRP, C-reactive protein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CYFRA21-1, cytokeratin 19 fragment; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; PNI, nutritional prognosis index.

Univariate and multivariate COX survival analysis of the OS

COX univariate analysis showed that baseline level of ANC, NLR, PLR, CRP, CEA, CYFRA21-1 and treatment line, ECOG PS and smoking were related to OS (P<0.05, ). Then, multivariate analysis through stepwise univariate analysis indicated that smoking was an independent protective factor for OS (HR =0.11, 95% CI: 0.02–0.51, P=0.005), but baseline level of CRP (HR =1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04, P=0.007), CYFRA21-1 (HR =1.04, 95% CI: 1.00–1.06, P=0.002), PLT (HR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.97–1.00, P=0.0493) and second-line treatment (HR =19.75, 95% CI: 2.56–152.22, P=0.004) or third-line treatment (HR =36.9, 95% CI: 5.11–266.56, P<0.001) were significantly associated with shortened OS.
Table 3

Univariate and multivariate COX analysis for OS

VariablesSubgroupUnivariate analysisMultivariate analysis
HR (95% CI)PHR (95% CI)P
GenderFemale1.4 (0.7–2.8)0.389
SmokingYes0.4 (0.2–0.8)0.0040.1 (0.0–0.3)0.001
Pleural metastasisYes1.8 (0.95–3.56)0.071
Lung metastasisYes0.96 (0.50–1.83)0.898
Bone metastasisYes1.72 (0.88–3.37)0.111
Liver metastasisYes2.80 (1.27–6.19)0.011
Brain metastasisYes0.95 (0.33–2.70)0.924
Histological typeLUAD vs. LUSC1.42 (0.72–2.80)0.31110.10 (2.17–47.01)0.003
Other vs. LUSC1.02 (0.23–4.48)0.975
EGFRYes1.64 (0.63–4.25)0.309
Age1.03 (1.00–1.07)0.082
ANC1.15 (1.03–1.29)0.012
CEA1.00 (1.00–1.00)0.005
CYFRA21-11.01 (1.00–1.02)0.0211.04 (1.01–1.06)0.002
ALC0.67 (0.33–1.34)0.377
NLR1.13 (1.05–1.21)0.001
MLR1.49 (1.02–2.18)0.038
PLT1.00 (1.00–1.00)0.3110.98 (0.97–1.00)0.049
PLR1.00 (1.00–1.00)0.029
AEC0.86 (0.26–2.81)0.806
Hb0.98 (0.97–1.00)0.0410.95 (0.92–0.99)0.007
CRP1.01 (1.00–1.02)0.0011.02 (1.01–1.04)0.007
LDH1.00 (1.00–1.01)0.289
PNI0.97 (0.94–1.01)0.207
Treatment line2nd vs. 1st-line2.64 (0.94–1.01)0.07819.75 (2.56–152.2)0.004
3rd vs. 1st-line3.62 (1.37–9.60)0.01036.9 (5.11–266.56)<0.001
ECOG2 vs. ≤16.16 (3.12–12.16)<0.001

OS, overall survival; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; MLR, monocytes-to-lymphocyte ratio; CRP, C-reactive protein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CYFRA21-1, cytokeratin 19 fragment; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; PNI, nutritional prognosis index.

OS, overall survival; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; MLR, monocytes-to-lymphocyte ratio; CRP, C-reactive protein; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CYFRA21-1, cytokeratin 19 fragment; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; PNI, nutritional prognosis index.

Establishment and validation of OS probability prediction nomogram

In the COX univariate analysis, variables related to OS (P<0.05) were screened through stepwise AIC regression. Smoking, liver metastasis, treatment lines, ECOG PS, the baseline level of CYFRA21-1and CRP were integrated into the dynamic prediction nomogram model to calculate survival probability at 3, 6, and 12 months in advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors ().
Figure 1

Prognostic nomogram of OS probability at 3-, 6- and 12-month in advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors For each factor, the number of corresponding risk points can be determined by delineating a vertical line from the prognostic factor to the points raw (0 to 100), and sum the corresponding risk points to determine the total points for each patient. The corresponding probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months can be obtained by drawing a straight line from the total points axis to the OS probability axis. OS, overall survival; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer.

Prognostic nomogram of OS probability at 3-, 6- and 12-month in advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors For each factor, the number of corresponding risk points can be determined by delineating a vertical line from the prognostic factor to the points raw (0 to 100), and sum the corresponding risk points to determine the total points for each patient. The corresponding probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months can be obtained by drawing a straight line from the total points axis to the OS probability axis. OS, overall survival; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer. Each prognostic parameter has a corresponding number of risk points, which can be obtained by delineating a vertical line from the prognostic factor to the points raw. Then, the corresponding risk points of each parameter were summed to determine the total points scored. Finally, from the total points axis, a vertical line can be drawn towards the OS probability axis to obtain the 3-, 6- and 12-month OS probability for a specific patient. For example, a smoking (0 point) patient with ECOG PS 1 (0 points), liver metastasis (25 points), a baseline level of CRP 100 mg/L (39 points), CYFRA21-1 40 ng/L (15.5 points) and accepting PD-1 inhibitors as second-line therapy (58 points), the sum of the total risk points was 137.5 points. By drawing a vertical line down the “3-, 6- and 12-month survival probability” axis, the survival probability of 3-, 6- and 12-month was 58%, 40%, and 12%, respectively. C-index for the current OS model was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.90), showed it had distinguished discrimination. According to the calibration curve (), among patients with actual mortality of greater than 44%, the model would overestimate mortality risk. For example, some individuals in whom the model predicted mortality risk of 60% (actual mortality of approximately 50%) might improperly refuse immunotherapy due to the high estimated risk of death and low expectation of therapeutic benefit. However, among patients with actual mortality of lower than 44%, the model would underestimate mortality risk. For example, some individuals in whom the model predicted mortality risk of 30% (actual mortality of approximately 35%) might improperly accept immunotherapy due to the low estimated risk of death and high expectation of therapeutic benefit. Therefore, the current model had an adequate calibration ability, but using the model would lead some patients to refuse or accept immunotherapy, impairing benefits from that treatment inappropriately.
Figure 2

Calibration plot of predicted mortality-probability against the observed mortality-probability at 12 months. The red regression curve is plotted to demonstrate the general trend; the dashed curve shows the 95% CI of the calibration curve; the blue line shows the ideal calibration line.

Calibration plot of predicted mortality-probability against the observed mortality-probability at 12 months. The red regression curve is plotted to demonstrate the general trend; the dashed curve shows the 95% CI of the calibration curve; the blue line shows the ideal calibration line.

Comparison of current nomogram and reported nomogram

Comparison of the C-index of current nomogram model 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.90) with the reported model (Botticelli model) 0.76 (95% CI: 0.68–0.81) presented no statistical difference indicating that the current model kept the same predictive accuracy as the Botticelli model. Decision curve analysis for 6-months survival () revealed that the current nomogram had a higher net benefit rate than the Botticelli nomogram, implying that patients could benefit from using the current model to guide clinical treatment decisions.
Figure 3

Decision curve analysis for 6-month survival black dotted line: current nomogram; red dotted line: Botticelli nomogram. Y-axis: net benefit = total benefits (true positives) − harms (false positives). The straight grey line represents the assumption that all patients will die at six months, and the black horizontal line represents the assumption that no patients will die at six months.

Decision curve analysis for 6-month survival black dotted line: current nomogram; red dotted line: Botticelli nomogram. Y-axis: net benefit = total benefits (true positives) − harms (false positives). The straight grey line represents the assumption that all patients will die at six months, and the black horizontal line represents the assumption that no patients will die at six months.

Performance of the nomogram in stratifying patient risk

Patients were divided into three subgroups according to the cut-off value of nomogram-based total score (TPS): low-risk (TPS ≤118, 65 cases), intermediate-risk (118< TPS ≤189, 20 cases), and high-risk (TPS >189, 12 cases). A significant OS difference was observed among subgroups. Median OS was 6.6, 4.5, 1.3 months, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis manifested that patients in the high-risk group were linked to a shortened OS ().
Figure 4

Kaplan-Meier curves for three subgroups based on the predictors from the nomogram. The red curve, green curve, and blue curve represent the group of TPS ≤118, 118< TPS ≤189, and TPS >189, respectively. The vertical axis is the survival rate, and the horizontal axis is over survival time (month). TPS, total point score.

Kaplan-Meier curves for three subgroups based on the predictors from the nomogram. The red curve, green curve, and blue curve represent the group of TPS ≤118, 118< TPS ≤189, and TPS >189, respectively. The vertical axis is the survival rate, and the horizontal axis is over survival time (month). TPS, total point score.

Discussion

ICIs with significant treatment effects and tolerable adverse events had developed a new standard management pattern for NSCLC patients. And there is an urgent need for predictive markers to precisely select immunotherapy optimal individuals. In the study, we used the easily accessible clinicopathological characteristics and serum parameters to establish a survival prognostic nomogram model for advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors. The nomogram model with superb predictive accuracy and discriminative ability could be applied to estimate individual risk for advanced NSCLC patients before the commencement of immunotherapy and assist in the decision-making process in clinical practice. The establishing indicators between the current and reported models (14) were diverse for the different factors screening methods. Another reason was that our study included peripheral biomarkers. Comparison of the C-index between current nomogram (C-index 0.81, 95% CI: 0.72–0.90) and reported nomogram (C-index 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65–0.85) implied that the predictive accuracy of current model kept the similar accuracy to reported model. Nevertheless, the current model was based on the real-world data of advanced NSCLC patients who received diversely immunotherapeutic strategies. The reported model was based on data of advanced NSCLC patients who received nivolumab as second-line therapy. The current nomogram might have a larger applicable population. Additionally, decision curve analysis for 6-month survival revealed a higher net benefit rate of the current model than reported one. As a classic indicator for patient behavioral status, clinical trials and real-world studies all had demonstrated that ECOG PS ≥2 was an independent predictor for dismal prognosis in NSCLC patients accepting systemic therapies (20,21). Hence, the ECOG PS score needs to be routinely assessed in the clinical decision-making process. Studies reported that receiving Pembrolizumab combined with platinum-based chemotherapy as a first-line regimen was the optimal management for advanced NSCLC patients, and with the backward-shift of treatment lines benefit from immunotherapy would be impaired (22,23). Our study also showed that the backward shift of treatment lines was paralleled to an increased prognostic risk score indicating the moment of adopting ICIs might impact clinical outcomes. COX univariate and multivariate survival analysis manifested that tobacco exposure history was an independent protective factor for NSCLC patients adopting ICIs. The potential mechanism was that tobacco carcinogen-related mutagenesis was linked to elevated nonsynonymous mutation burden promoting the expression of neoantigens, which makes tumor cells more immunogenic, improving the recognition ability and sensitivity of T cells (24). Another possible mechanism was that tobacco exposure could shape chronic inflammation microenvironment to recruit tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and release interferon-γ (IFN-γ) inducing PD-L1 expression and enhancing the stability of the PD-L1. As a routinely examined clinical marker, elevated serum level of CRP could reflect the host’s chronic inflammatory status, and immune response to the tumor. In the study, baseline CRP level was positively correlated with patients’ risk scores. CRP could be through IL-6/JAK/STAT3 signal pathway to promote cancer immune evasion (25). Previous data demonstrated that NSCLC patients with liver metastasis had a reduced 3-year survival rate, inadequate treatment response, and shortened PFS in immunotherapy (26), and our study had observed the same association. Incomplete activation of CD8+T cells, capturing and clear of activated CD8+T cells could induce liver-related peripheral immune tolerance (27). Also, Bamboat (28) observed that difference in dendritic cell secretions in peripheral blood and liver was a potential interpretation of the diverse quantity and activity of cytotoxic T cells in the liver and circulation. Serum tumor markers such as CEA and CYFRA 21-1 had been identified as useful prognostic and longitudinal monitoring biomarkers in NSCLC patients receiving chemotherapy (29) and targeted therapy (30). Recently, studies also found that serum level of CYFRA21-1 or CEA could assist in predicting immunotherapy efficacy (16). Our data showed that baseline levels of CEA and CYFRA21-1 were positively correlated with the patient’s risk score before immunotherapy. CEA and CYFRA21-1 both are commonly used clinical indicators. The serum concentration of CYFRA21-1 is particularly elevated in the carcinoid tumors and LUSC (31). In this study, only CYFRA21-1 was selected as a predictive model construction factor, which may be related to the larger proportion of males and LUSC patients in this study. Given the retrospective nature of the study, there were certain limitations. Firstly, as a retrospective study cannot exclude all potential biases. Secondly, many studies were inclined to transfer continuous parameters to binary variables, but we did not adopt the usual conversion. Moons (19) deemed that converting continuous variables into binary variables might lead to loss of major information and reduce the test power. Thirdly, only monocentric data of advanced NSCLC patients receiving PD-1 inhibitors were used to develop the nomogram with small sample sizes and imbalanced male-to-female ratio. Further larger scale, multi-center prospective studies, and external validation should be performed to check whether these results were suitable for the general population. At last, this study only focused on the prognostic function of clinicopathological characteristics and routinely used serum parameters in NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors. Other broadly explored predictors such as PD-L1 and TMB were not included in the analysis. In conclusion, the nomogram based on easily accessible clinicopathological characteristics and serum parameters was a simple and inexpensive prognostic tool for advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors, which could be adopted in individual risk assessment before patients receiving PD-1 inhibitors as well as assisting clinicians in making optimal therapeutic decisions. The article’s supplementary files as
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Journal:  Science       Date:  2015-04-03       Impact factor: 47.728

9.  Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Authors:  Christina Fitzmaurice; Degu Abate; Naghmeh Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Abdishakur S M Abdulle; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Ahmed Abualhasan; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Shailesh M Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Mohammad Aghaali; Dominic Agius; Sutapa Agrawal; Ayat Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Tomi Akinyemiju; Ziyad Al-Aly; Assim M AlAbdulKader; Fares Alahdab; Tahiya Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Birhan Tamene T Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Fatemeh Allah Bakeshei; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Ubai Alsharif; Shirina Alsowaidi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Erfan Amini; Saeed Amini; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Jalal Arabloo; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Reza Assadi; Bahar Ataeinia; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F G A Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Ebrahim Babaee; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Eleni Bagli; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Abbas Balouchi; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Robert J Battista; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Belayneh; Kathleen Kim Sachiko Berfield; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Mircea Beuran; Nickhill Bhakta; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Charles Birungi; Catherine Bisignano; Helen Bitew; Tone Bjørge; Archie Bleyer; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Antonio M Borzì; Cristina Bosetti; Ibrahim R Bou-Orm; Hermann Brenner; Jerry D Brewer; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Zahid A Butt; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Neelima Singh Chauhan; Mohammad Chehrazi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Onyema Greg Chido-Amajuoyi; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Jee-Young J Choi; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Vera M Costa; Emanuele Crocetti; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Maria Paula Curado; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; José das Neves; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Birhanu Wondimeneh Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Afshin Derakhshani; Kalkidan Solomon Deribe; Rupak Desai; Beruk Berhanu Desalegn; Melaku Desta; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Mesfin Tadese Tadese Dinberu; Shirin Djalalinia; David Teye Doku; Thomas M Drake; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Hajer Elkout; Richard G Ellenbogen; Aisha Elsharkawy; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Daniel Adane Endalew; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Ibtihal Fadhil; Vahid Fallah Omrani; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mahdieh Abbasalizad Farhangi; Andrea Farioli; Farshad Farzadfar; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Lisa M Force; Masoud Foroutan; Marisa Freitas; Takeshi Fukumoto; Neal D Futran; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K Gelaw; Birhanu Geta; Sefonias Getachew; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba T G Ginindza; Alem Girmay; Muluken Gizaw; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Prakash C Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Kishor Hadkhale; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Josep Maria Haro; Milad Hasankhani; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Roderick J Hay; Simon I Hay; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos D Hidru; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K Hole; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; H Dean Hosgood; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Bogdan Ileanu; Milena D Ilic; Kaire Innos; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Kufre Robert Iseh; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Nader Jafari Balalami; Morteza Jafarinia; Leila Jahangiry; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Sudha Jayaraman; Sun Ha Jee; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Tamas Joo; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Farin Kamangar; André Karch; Narges Karimi; Ansar Karimian; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Belete Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Mesfin Wudu Kassaw; Anil Kaul; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Yousef Saleh Khader; Maryam Khalilarjmandi; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Maryam Khazaee-Pool; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T Khoja; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Neda Kianipour; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Hamidreza Komaki; Ai Koyanagi; Kristopher J Krohn; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Vivek Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Carlo La Vecchia; Deepesh P Lad; Eyasu Alem Lake; Ayenew Molla Lakew; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Jeffrey V Lazarus; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Yu Liao; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Stefan Listl; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Raimundas Lunevicius; Mohammed Madadin; Sameh Magdeldin; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ali Manafi; Navid Manafi; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Morteza Mansourian; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Saman Maroufizadeh; Santi Martini S Martini; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Motswadi Titus Maswabi; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Martin McKee; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Ravi Mehrotra; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Yohannes A Melaku; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Shahin Merat; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Kebadnew Mulatu M Mihretie; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Seyed Mostafa Mir; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Rashmi Mishra; Babak Moazen; Dara K Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi; Hiwa Mohammadi; Moslem Mohammadi; Mahdi Mohammadian; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Farhad Moradpour; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Naho Morisaki; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Oumer Sada S Muhammed; Jonah Musa; Ashraf F Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Naser Nasiri; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Subas Neupane; Polly A Newcomb; Haruna Asura Nggada; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Leila Nikniaz; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Marzieh Nojomi; Shirin Nosratnejad; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Abidemi E Omonisi; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Anu Mary Oommen; Eyal Oren; Doris D V Ortega-Altamirano; Erika Ota; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Eun-Kee Park; Hadi Parsian; Tahereh Pashaei; Shanti Patel; Snehal T Patil; Alyssa Pennini; David M Pereira; Cristiano Piccinelli; Julian David Pillay; Majid Pirestani; Farhad Pishgar; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mahdi Rahimi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Fatemeh Rajati; Saleem M Rana; Samira Raoofi; Goura Kishor Rath; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Robert C Reiner; Andre M N Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Luca Ronfani; Elias Merdassa Roro; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Ragy Safwat Saad; Parisa Sabbagh; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Saeid Safiri; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Farkhonde Salehi; Hosni Salem; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A Salomon; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Sepehrimanesh; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Mohammad Shahbaz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Amir Shamshirian; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Heidar Sharafi; Zeinab Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Ali Sharifi; Hamid Sharifi; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Reza Shirkoohi; Sharvari Rahul Shukla; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Solomon Sisay; Freddy Sitas; Eugène Sobngwi; Moslem Soofi; Joan B Soriano; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Ken Takahashi; Omid Reza Tamtaji; Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Parvaneh Taymoori; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Irfan Ullah; Olalekan A Uthman; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Patricia Varona Pérez; Yousef Veisani; Simone Vidale; Francesco S Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Kia Vosoughi; Giang Thu Vu; Isidora S Vujcic; Henry Wabinga; Tesfahun Mulatu Wachamo; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Tissa Wijeratne; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Hailemariam Mekonnen Workie; Rajaram Yadav; Abbas Yadegar; Ali Yadollahpour; Mehdi Yaseri; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Alex Yeshaneh; Mohammed Ahmed Yimam; Ebrahim M Yimer; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Bahman Yousefi; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Erfan Zabeh; Vesna Zadnik; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Alireza Zangeneh; Leila Zaki; Kazem Zendehdel; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Journal:  JAMA Oncol       Date:  2019-12-01       Impact factor: 31.777

10.  Immunotherapy at any line of treatment improves survival in patients with advanced metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared with chemotherapy (Quijote-CLICaP).

Authors:  Alejandro Ruiz-Patiño; Oscar Arrieta; Andrés F Cardona; Claudio Martín; Luis E Raez; Zyanya L Zatarain-Barrón; Feliciano Barrón; Luisa Ricaurte; María A Bravo-Garzón; Luis Mas; Luis Corrales; Leonardo Rojas; Lorena Lupinacci; Florencia Perazzo; Carlos Bas; Omar Carranza; Carmen Puparelli; Manglio Rizzo; Rossana Ruiz; Christian Rolfo; Pilar Archila; July Rodríguez; Carolina Sotelo; Carlos Vargas; Hernán Carranza; Jorge Otero; Luis E Pino; Carlos Ortíz; Paola Laguado; Rafael Rosell
Journal:  Thorac Cancer       Date:  2019-12-12       Impact factor: 3.500

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  3 in total

1.  Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Plus Chemotherapy in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Authors:  Hao Zeng; Wei-Wei Huang; Yu-Jie Liu; Qin Huang; Sheng-Min Zhao; Ya-Lun Li; Pan-Wen Tian; Wei-Min Li
Journal:  Front Oncol       Date:  2021-08-12       Impact factor: 6.244

2.  Clinical and Biological Variables Influencing Outcome in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Treated with Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Antibodies: A Prospective Multicentre Study.

Authors:  Erica Quaquarini; Federico Sottotetti; Francesco Agustoni; Emma Pozzi; Alberto Malovini; Cristina Maria Teragni; Raffaella Palumbo; Giuseppe Saltalamacchia; Barbara Tagliaferri; Emanuela Balletti; Pietro Rinaldi; Costanza Canino; Paolo Pedrazzoli; Antonio Bernardo
Journal:  J Pers Med       Date:  2022-04-24

3.  Serum tumor markers level and their predictive values for solid and micropapillary components in lung adenocarcinoma.

Authors:  Zhihua Li; Weibing Wu; Xianglong Pan; Fang Li; Quan Zhu; Zhicheng He; Liang Chen
Journal:  Cancer Med       Date:  2022-03-14       Impact factor: 4.711

  3 in total

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