| Literature DB >> 33136132 |
Tajinder P Singh1,2, Mandeep R Mehra3,4, Kimberlee Gauvreau1,5.
Abstract
Importance: Differences among pediatric transplant centers in long-term survival of pediatric recipients of heart transplants can be mostly explained by differences in 90-day mortality. Objective: To understand characteristics associated with high-performing pediatric HT centers by comparing key outcomes among centers stratified by 90-day risk-adjusted mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included recipients of HT aged younger than 18 years in the US. Analyses included 44 US centers during 2006 to 2015 using the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network database. A risk model for 90-day mortality was developed using data from all recipients to estimate expected 90-day mortality and 90-day standardized mortality ratio (SMR; calculated as observed mortality divided by expected mortality) for each center. Centers were stratified into tertiles by SMR and compared for key outcomes. Data were analyzed from January to March 2020. Exposures: High-, medium-, and low-performing centers (SMR tertile). Main Outcomes and Measures: Posttransplant 90-day mortality across recipient risk spectrum and incidence of and mortality following early posttransplant complications.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 33136132 PMCID: PMC7607438 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23515
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JAMA Netw Open ISSN: 2574-3805
Multivariable Risk Model for Mortality Within 90 Days of Heart Transplant
| Characteristic | Coefficient | Odds ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Age at transplant, y | ||
| <1 | 0.9928 | 2.70 (1.59-4.59) |
| 1-10 | 0.3022 | 1.35 (0.81-2.25) |
| 11-17 | NA | 1 [Reference] |
| Diagnosis | ||
| Dilated CMP | NA | 1 [Reference] |
| Non-dilated CMP | 0.9409 | 2.56 (1.20-5.48) |
| CHD, repaired | 1.3901 | 4.02 (2.54-6.34) |
| CHD, unrepaired | 1.0464 | 2.85 (1.42-5.71) |
| Other | 0.0134 | 1.01 (0.29-3.49) |
| Ventilator | 0.3936 | 1.48 (1.00-2.19) |
| Mechanical support | ||
| None | NA | 1 [Reference] |
| ECMO | 1.5365 | 4.65 (2.93-7.37) |
| BIVAD | 1.1620 | 3.20 (1.56-6.53) |
| LVAD | 0.2185 | 1.24 (0.63-2.46) |
| Baseline kidney dysfunction | ||
| None | NA | 1 [Reference] |
| Moderate | 0.3967 | 1.49 (0.97-2.29) |
| Severe | 1.5377 | 4.65 (2.78-7.78) |
| Bilirubin, mg/dL | ||
| <0.6 | NA | 1 [Reference] |
| 0.6-1.9 | 0.4096 | 1.51 (1.01-2.25) |
| ≥2.0 | 0.9169 | 2.50 (1.57-3.99) |
| Intercept | –5.2809 | NA |
Abbreviations: BIVAD, biventricular assist device; CMP, cardiomyopathy; CHD, congenital heart disease; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; LVAD, left ventricular assist device; NA, not applicable.
SI conversion factor: To convert bilirubin to micromoles per liter, multiply by 17.104.
Calculated as P = (X/X+1) where X indicates exp (intercept + coefficient for each variable as it applies to the patient).
Figure 1. Observed vs Expected Posttransplant 90-Day Mortality Using the Risk Model in All Recipients of Heart Transplants
The line indicates the line of identity; dots, observed vs the expected mortality within the expected mortality ranges of less than 5%, 5% to 9.9%, 10% to 14.9%, and 15% or greater.
Baseline Characteristics of Recipients of Heart Transplants at High-, Medium-, and Low-Performing Centers
| Variable | Patients by center, No. (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-performing (n = 973) | Medium-performing (n = 1268) | Low-performing (n = 970) | ||
| Age at transplant, y | ||||
| <1 | 286 (29.4) | 419 (33.0) | 311 (32.1) | .18 |
| 1-10 | 377 (38.8) | 493 (38.9) | 356 (36.7) | |
| 11-17 | 310 (31.9) | 356 (28.1) | 303 (31.2) | |
| Girls | 432 (44.4) | 584 (46.1) | 443 (45.7) | .73 |
| Diagnosis | ||||
| Dilated CMP | 447 (45.9) | 527 (41.6) | 413 (42.6) | .09 |
| Nondilated CMP | 85 (8.7) | 100 (7.9) | 86 (8.9) | |
| CHD, repaired | 362 (37.2) | 507 (40.0) | 370 (38.1) | |
| CHD, unrepaired | 39 (4.0) | 84 (6.6) | 67 (6.9) | |
| Other | 40 (4.1) | 50 (3.9) | 34 (3.5) | |
| Blood type | ||||
| A | 327 (33.6) | 477 (37.6) | 348 (35.9) | .13 |
| AB | 37 (3.8) | 55 (4.3) | 42 (4.3) | |
| B | 140 (14.4) | 149 (11.8) | 148 (15.3) | |
| O | 469 (48.2) | 587 (46.3) | 432 (44.5) | |
| Race/Ethnicity | ||||
| White | 456 (46.9) | 778 (61.4) | 516 (53.2) | <.001 |
| Black | 217 (22.3) | 242 (19.1) | 196 (20.2) | |
| Hispanic | 221 (22.7) | 160 (12.6) | 195 (20.1) | |
| Other | 79 (8.1) | 88 (6.9) | 63 (6.4) | |
| Inotropes | 485 (49.9) | 655 (51.7) | 478 (49.3) | .49 |
| Ventilator | 160 (16.4) | 270 (21.3) | 140 (14.4) | <.001 |
| Mechanical support | ||||
| ECMO | 45 (4.6) | 85 (6.7) | 48 (5.0) | <.001 |
| BIVAD | 36 (3.7) | 85 (6.7) | 29 (3.0) | |
| LVAD | 151 (15.5) | 144 (11.4) | 140 (14.4) | |
| Dialysis | 20 (2.1) | 39 (3.1) | 21 (2.2) | .24 |
| Kidney dysfunction | ||||
| Moderate | 257 (26.4) | 279 (22.0) | 242 (25.0) | .01 |
| Severe | 30 (3.1) | 69 (5.4) | 37 (3.8) | |
| Bilirubin, mg/dL | ||||
| <0.6 | 413 (42.4) | 591 (46.6) | 425 (43.8) | .23 |
| 0.6-1.9 | 429 (44.1) | 532 (42.0) | 413 (42.5) | |
| ≥2.0 | 131 (13.5) | 145 (11.4) | 132 (13.6) | |
| PRA (%) | ||||
| ≤10 | 759 (78.0) | 1038 (81.9) | 737 (76.0) | <.001 |
| >10, ≤25 | 72 (7.4) | 61 (4.8) | 51 (5.3) | |
| >25 | 142 (14.6) | 169 (13.3) | 182 (18.8) | |
| Medicaid insurance | 440 (45.2) | 595 (46.9) | 351 (36.2) | <.001 |
| Year of transplant | ||||
| 2006-2008 | 246 (25.3) | 319 (25.2) | 283 (29.2) | .01 |
| 2009-2011 | 266 (27.3) | 396 (31.2) | 297 (30.6) | |
| 2012-2015 | 461 (47.4) | 553 (43.6) | 390 (40.2) | |
Abbreviations: BIVAD, bi-ventricular assist device; CHD, congenital heart disease; CMP, cardiomyopathy; ECMO, extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation; LVAD, left ventricular assist device; PRA, panel reactive antibody.
SI conversion factor: To convert bilirubin to micromoles per liter, multiply by 17.104.
Figure 2. Observed vs Expected Posttransplant 90-Day Mortality
The line indicates the line of identity; dots, observed vs the expected mortality within the expected mortality ranges of less than 5%, 5% to 9.9%, 10% to 14.9%, and 15% or greater; and error bars, 95% CIs for observed mortality.
Cause-Specific Mortality at High-, Medium-, and Low-Performing Centers
| Cause of death | Deaths by center, No. (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High performing (n = 973) | Medium performing (n = 1268) | Low performing (n = 970) | ||
| Graft failure | 6 (0.6) | 22 (1.7) | 22 (2.3) | <.001 |
| Infection | 0 | 5 (0.4) | 5 (0.5) | .02 |
| Cardiovascular | 2 (0.2) | 8 (0.6) | 4 (0.4) | .32 |
| Pulmonary | 4 (0.4) | 4 (0.3) | 2 (0.2) | .38 |
| Cerebrovascular | 3 (0.3) | 10 (0.8) | 11 (1.1) | .009 |
| Hemorrhage | 2 (0.2) | 4 (0.3) | 9 (0.9) | .02 |
| Malignant neoplasm | 0 | 0 | 0 | NA |
| Multiorgan failure | 3 (0.3) | 8 (0.6) | 19 (2.0) | <.001 |
| Other | 2 (0.2) | 3 (0.2) | 5 (0.5) | .36 |
| Unknown or not reported | 1 (0.1) | 2 (0.2) | 2 (0.2) | .50 |
Abbreviation: NA, not applicable.