Matteo Donadon1, Jacopo Galvanin1, Bruno Branciforte1, Angela Palmisano1, Fabio Procopio1, Matteo Cimino1, Daniele Del Fabbro1, Guido Torzilli2. 1. Division of Hepatobiliary and General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Humanitas University, Humanitas Clinical and Research Center - IRCCS, Rozzano, Milan, Italy. 2. Division of Hepatobiliary and General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Humanitas University, Humanitas Clinical and Research Center - IRCCS, Rozzano, Milan, Italy. Electronic address: guido.torzilli@hunimed.eu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program's (ACS-NSQIP) calculator has been endorsed to counsel patients regarding complications. The aim of this study was to assess its ability to predict outcomes after hepatectomy. METHODS: Outcomes generated by the ACS-NSQIP were recorded in a consecutive cohort of patients. By using established classifications of complications, post-hepatectomy insufficiency and bile leak, the calculator was tested by the comparison of expected versus observed rates of events. The performance of the calculator was tested by using c-statistic and Brier score. RESULTS: 950 patients who underwent hepatectomy between January 2014 and June 2019 were included. Predicted rates were significantly lower than actual rates: the mean ACS-NSQIP morbidity was 17.97% ± 8.4 vs. actual 37.01% ± 0.56 (P < 0.001); the mean ACS-NSQIP mortality was 0.91% ± 1.48 vs. actual 1.76% ± 0.11 (P < 0.001). Predicted length of stay (LOS) was significantly shorter: mean ACS-NSQIP was 5.81 ± 1.66 days vs. actual 10.91 ± 4.6 days (P < 0.001). Post-hepatectomy liver insufficiency and bile leak were recorded in 6.8% and 11.9% of patients, respectively. These events were not expressed by the calculator. C-statistic and Brier scores showed low performance of the calculator. CONCLUSION: The calculator underestimates the risks of complications, mortality and LOS after hepatectomy. Refinements of the ACS-NSQIP model that account for organ-specific risks should be considered.
BACKGROUND: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program's (ACS-NSQIP) calculator has been endorsed to counsel patients regarding complications. The aim of this study was to assess its ability to predict outcomes after hepatectomy. METHODS: Outcomes generated by the ACS-NSQIP were recorded in a consecutive cohort of patients. By using established classifications of complications, post-hepatectomy insufficiency and bile leak, the calculator was tested by the comparison of expected versus observed rates of events. The performance of the calculator was tested by using c-statistic and Brier score. RESULTS: 950 patients who underwent hepatectomy between January 2014 and June 2019 were included. Predicted rates were significantly lower than actual rates: the mean ACS-NSQIP morbidity was 17.97% ± 8.4 vs. actual 37.01% ± 0.56 (P < 0.001); the mean ACS-NSQIP mortality was 0.91% ± 1.48 vs. actual 1.76% ± 0.11 (P < 0.001). Predicted length of stay (LOS) was significantly shorter: mean ACS-NSQIP was 5.81 ± 1.66 days vs. actual 10.91 ± 4.6 days (P < 0.001). Post-hepatectomy liver insufficiency and bile leak were recorded in 6.8% and 11.9% of patients, respectively. These events were not expressed by the calculator. C-statistic and Brier scores showed low performance of the calculator. CONCLUSION: The calculator underestimates the risks of complications, mortality and LOS after hepatectomy. Refinements of the ACS-NSQIP model that account for organ-specific risks should be considered.