Priya Sreenivasan1, S Geetha2, A Santhosh Kumar3. 1. Department of Pediatrics, and Clinical Epidemiology Resource and Training Centre (CERTC), Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. Correspondence to: Dr Priya Sreenivasan, Associate Professor of Pediatrics, Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India. priyavineed16@gmail.com. 2. Department of Pediatrics, and Clinical Epidemiology Resource and Training Centre (CERTC), Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. 3. Department of Pediatrics, Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify WHO 2009 warning signs that can predict time taken for progression to severe dengue in a pediatric population. DESIGN: Prospective analytical study over 1 year and 2 months. SETTING: Tertiary care center. PARTICIPANTS: 350 children aged 1 mo-12 y with serologically confirmed dengue without co-morbidities/co-infections; conse-cutive sampling. PROCEDURE: At admission, clinical and laboratory details were noted. Disease progression, time of onset of each warning sign, hematocrit, and platelet counts were recorded daily till discharge/ death. If progressing to severe dengue, its time of onset was noted. Time to event analysis with Log Rank test, Kaplan Meier plots and Cox Proportional Hazards Model was done. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was time interval from onset of first warning sign to onset of severe dengue (defined as per WHO 2009 guidelines). Predictors were WHO 2009 warning signs: abdominal pain, lethargy, persistent vomiting, mucosal bleed, clinical fluid accumulation, hepatomegaly >2 cm, hematocrit ≥0.40 and platelet count <100x109/L. RESULTS: Among 350 children followed up completely till discharge/death, 90 developed severe dengue (event) while 260 did not (censored). Median age of study population was 7.75 y. Clinical fluid accumulation [(P=0.002, Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.19, 95% CI 1.33-3.60)] and hematocrit ≥0.40 [(P=0.009, HR (95%CI) 1.715, (1.13-2.60)] were significant in univariate analysis. Final multivariate model includes clinical fluid accumulation [(P=0.02, HR (95%CI) 1.89, (1.116-3.202)], hematocrit ≥0.40 (P=0.07), mucosal bleed (P=0.56) and persistent vomiting (P=0.32). CONCLUSION: WHO warning signs that predict time taken for progression to severe dengue in children include clinical fluid accumulation, hematocrit ≥0.40, persistent vomiting and mucosal bleed. Study results have implications in policy making and practice guidelines to triage children attending a health care facility with or without warning signs.
OBJECTIVES: To identify WHO 2009 warning signs that can predict time taken for progression to severe dengue in a pediatric population. DESIGN: Prospective analytical study over 1 year and 2 months. SETTING: Tertiary care center. PARTICIPANTS: 350 children aged 1 mo-12 y with serologically confirmed dengue without co-morbidities/co-infections; conse-cutive sampling. PROCEDURE: At admission, clinical and laboratory details were noted. Disease progression, time of onset of each warning sign, hematocrit, and platelet counts were recorded daily till discharge/ death. If progressing to severe dengue, its time of onset was noted. Time to event analysis with Log Rank test, Kaplan Meier plots and Cox Proportional Hazards Model was done. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was time interval from onset of first warning sign to onset of severe dengue (defined as per WHO 2009 guidelines). Predictors were WHO 2009 warning signs: abdominal pain, lethargy, persistent vomiting, mucosal bleed, clinical fluid accumulation, hepatomegaly >2 cm, hematocrit ≥0.40 and platelet count <100x109/L. RESULTS: Among 350 children followed up completely till discharge/death, 90 developed severe dengue (event) while 260 did not (censored). Median age of study population was 7.75 y. Clinical fluid accumulation [(P=0.002, Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.19, 95% CI 1.33-3.60)] and hematocrit ≥0.40 [(P=0.009, HR (95%CI) 1.715, (1.13-2.60)] were significant in univariate analysis. Final multivariate model includes clinical fluid accumulation [(P=0.02, HR (95%CI) 1.89, (1.116-3.202)], hematocrit ≥0.40 (P=0.07), mucosal bleed (P=0.56) and persistent vomiting (P=0.32). CONCLUSION: WHO warning signs that predict time taken for progression to severe dengue in children include clinical fluid accumulation, hematocrit ≥0.40, persistent vomiting and mucosal bleed. Study results have implications in policy making and practice guidelines to triage children attending a health care facility with or without warning signs.